USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-10-08 09:00 UTC 1 hour ago

61.0 % ↑ +25.7 zur Vorkerze

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +29% Scalping

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (16.79)

6 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

56.1% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 100.0 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (8 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	2.29
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.21
▼	ICHIMOKU Cloud Bearish	indicator	1.88
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.83
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.76
▼	ADX Trend Weak	indicator	1.67
▼	DI CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.58
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.57
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	DM CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.39
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.28

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on the 30-minute chart with 91% probability, supported by a cluster of indicators.
Overall trend is bearish across lower timeframes, but higher timeframes (12H, 1D) remain bullish, creating a mixed picture.
Watch the nearest support at 157.583 and resistance at 158.400; a break below support could confirm further downside.
The signal is based on a combination of indicator crossovers and Fibonacci levels, suggesting a technically driven move.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal is firmly bearish, with a very strong probability of 91% and a battery of indicators aligning to the downside. The ADX Trend Weak and DI Cross Down suggest a fresh bearish momentum phase, while the DM Cross Down, KDJ Cross Down, and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down all confirm the directional shift. The T3 Break Down and HMA Retreat Down indicate that price has broken below key moving averages and is now retreating, while the WILLR OB Exit shows the market is moving away from overbought conditions, adding to the bearish case. The Fibonacci signal group implies that price is likely interacting with key retracement levels, potentially finding resistance at these zones.

Across timeframes, the bearish bias is consistent from the 15-minute through the 8-hour charts, though the trend strength is weak (1/5 or 2/5) and choppy/sideways on most. The higher timeframes (12-hour and daily) are still bullish, which presents a conflicting backdrop. The nearest resistance at 158.400 and support at 157.583 are the key levels to watch. A break below support could accelerate the decline, while a move back above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators (DI, DM, KDJ, ERI) all crossed down simultaneously, confirming strong bearish momentum.
▼ T3 and HMA breaks down suggest price is below key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend.
▼ WILLR OB exit indicates the market is moving away from overbought conditions, supporting the sell signal.
▼ Bearish alignment across 15m to 8h timeframes, despite weak trend strength, provides a consistent short-term directional bias.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframe (12H, 1D) trends are still bullish, which could limit the downside or lead to a reversal.
▲ Trend strength is weak (1/5 or 2/5) on most timeframes, meaning the bearish move may lack conviction and could be prone to choppy behavior.
▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 158.400, the bearish signal would be invalidated, and the bullish higher timeframe trend could resume.
▲ The signal is on a 30-minute timeframe, so it is short-term in nature; unexpected news or economic events could quickly shift momentum.