USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-10-20 20:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.00 %

Entry

158.167

Target

157.700 +0.30 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −0.28 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 2 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 2,056 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,056 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.24 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.37 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: VIDYA Break Down, EMA 50 Break Down, SMA 50 Retreat Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 5 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 25,710 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % ↓ −24.0 vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +4% Scalping

▲ Bullish 20 % (8.21) ▼ Bearish 80 % (33.41)

model score 8.3 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (20 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	VIDYA Break Down	indicator	2.29
▼	EMA 50 Break Down	indicator	2.23
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.21
▲	KDJ OB Exit	indicator	2.09
▼	SMA 50 Retreat Down	indicator	1.92
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.84
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.75
▲	SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.73
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▼	CTI OB Entry	indicator	1.41

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish confluence on 30M with multiple overbought exits and trend breaks.
Higher timeframes (1H-8H) lean bearish but with weak trend scores, so expect choppy price action.
Key levels: support at 157.87800, resistance at 158.60300; watch for a break below support.
Mixed higher-timeframe bias (12H/1D bullish) keeps this as a short-term tactical sell.

The 30-minute USD/JPY signal fires a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including a Stochastic crossover down, Williams %R exit from overbought territory, an EMA 50 break lower, SMA 50 retreat, and multiple overbought exits (CTI, KDJ, HMA). The SQUEEZE zero cross up adds a volatility expansion component, suggesting the market is transitioning from compression into a potential downward move. The confluence of these momentum and trend-following signals on the 30M timeframe points to a strong short-term bearish push, with the nearest support at 157.87800 serving as the immediate downside target and resistance at 158.60300 defining the upper boundary.

Across higher timeframes, the bearish bias is consistent from 30M through 8H, though trend strength is weak (1-2/5) and choppy/sideways conditions dominate, indicating that while the direction aligns, the overall trend is not deeply established. The 15M and 12H/1D timeframes show bullish leanings, creating a mixed backdrop. This suggests the sell signal is best viewed as a tactical, short-term opportunity rather than a confirmed multi-hour trend. Traders should watch for a break below support to confirm bearish momentum, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple overbought exits (STOCH, WILLR, CTI, KDJ) align to signal fading upside momentum.
▼ EMA 50 and SMA 50 breaks down confirm bearish trend alignment on the 30M timeframe.
▼ SQUEEZE zero cross up indicates volatility expansion that often accompanies directional moves.
▼ Consistent bearish lean across 30M to 8H supports the sell direction.

Risk Factors

▲ Weak trend strength (1-2/5) across higher timeframes suggests the move may lack follow-through.
▲ Bullish 15M and 12H/1D timeframes could counter the short-term sell pressure.
▲ Resistance at 158.60300 is nearby; a reclaim would invalidate the signal.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions may lead to false breaks or whipsaws around support.