USD/JPY – 8H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-10-28 21:00 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.03 %

Entry

157.816

Target

156.075 +1.10 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.949 −0.72 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 10 candles (3.3 days), at the market price · now candle 8 of 10

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 49 of 100 forex 8h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 300 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 300 closed forex 8h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

19 % at target avg +0.64 % 30 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.42 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.42 % 18 % at stop avg −0.59 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HMA Break Down, ALMA Break Down, SMA 200 Break Down +8 more

Trend at entry: in 7 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 33,308 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 12 % (5.16) ▼ Bearish 88 % (38.91)

model score 16.5 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 9 candles

Loading…

Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

15:00TodayUSDJOLTS Job Openings●●●Forecast 6.779MPrevious 7.079Min 14h
15:00TodayUSDFactory Orders m/m●●○Forecast 0.1%Previous 0.1%in 14h
13:15TomorrowUSDADP Nonfarm Employment Change●●●Forecast 64KPrevious 90Kin 1 day

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 5× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 5× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (29 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	2.01
▼	ALMA Break Down	indicator	1.98
▼	SMA 200 Break Down	indicator	1.83
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.49
▲	DPO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.44
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.31
▲	Matching Low	candlestick	1.16
▼	DI CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.10
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.04
▲	Bullish Doji Star	candlestick	1.03
▼	DM CROSS Cross Down	indicator	0.97
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	0.92
▼	Gapping Down Doji	candlestick	0.71

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal on 8H with multiple crossovers and breakdowns, but choppy conditions across most timeframes.
Watch the 156.07500 support; a break below could confirm downside, while a hold may lead to consolidation.
The 2H bullish trend is the main counter-signal; monitor if it gains strength and challenges the bearish case.
Resistance at 158.94900 is the invalidation level; a reclaim would negate the bearish setup.

The USD/JPY 8H signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including DI and DM Cross Downs, EMA 200 and SMA 200 breakdowns, and a KDJ Cross Down, all aligning to a strong SELL bias with 84% probability. The broader trend context shows bearish conditions across most timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 1d), though the 2H timeframe is bullish and trend-forming, indicating a possible short-term countertrend. The choppy/sideways nature on most timeframes suggests that while the bearish direction is consistent, momentum is not robust, and price action may be range-bound.

Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 158.94900 and support at 156.07500. A sustained break below support would reinforce the bearish signal, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate it. The DPO Zero Cross Up and ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down add nuance, suggesting that despite the bearish crossovers, there is some underlying oscillation. Traders should watch for a decisive move toward support, as the current choppy conditions may lead to false breakouts.

Catalysts

▼ Alignment of bearish trends across 7 of 8 timeframes.
▼ Multiple indicator confirmations (DI, DM, EMA, SMA, KDJ) all firing in the same direction.
▼ Strong probability (84%) and strong signal strength.
▼ Bearish candlestick patterns supporting the indicator cluster.

Risk Factors

▲ Choppy/sideways price action may lead to false breakouts or range-bound trading.
▲ The 2H bullish trend is a conflicting higher timeframe signal that could gain momentum.
▲ If support at 156.07500 holds, the bearish signal may fade, leading to a bounce toward resistance.
▲ Watch for a reclaim of the 158.94900 resistance, which would invalidate the bearish thesis.