USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL NEW

2026-11-04 22:00 UTC 2 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.12 %

Entry

158.072

Target

156.962 +0.70 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −0.34 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 0 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 575 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 575 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: CCI Zero Cross Down, STOCH KD Cross Down, DI CROSS Cross Down +11 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % – first candle

VERY STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (23.29)

model score 100.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDNonfarm Productivity q/q●●○Forecast 1.9%Previous 1.4%in 9h
13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 9h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 9h

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (5 Nov 2026, 02:00 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	CCI Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.55
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.38
▼	DI CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.37
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.33
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.30
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.28
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.24
▼	DM CROSS Cross Down	indicator	1.21
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.13
▼	KELTNER MID Cross Down	indicator	1.08
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.01
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.01
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.01
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	0.92

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish momentum on the 4H timeframe with a high-conviction signal (100% probability, very strong).
All timeframes align bearish, but most are choppy/sideways with low trend strength, suggesting a gradual move rather than a sharp breakout.
Key levels: resistance at 158.336 and support at 156.962; watch for a break below support to confirm the downside.
The cluster of 14+ indicators crossing down simultaneously reinforces the bearish case.

The USD/JPY 4H signal has fired a cluster of bearish momentum indicators, including BOP Zero Cross Down, CCI Zero Cross Down, DI Cross Down, DM Cross Down, MOM Zero Cross Down, ROC Zero Cross Down, ROCR Cross Down, and STOCH KD Cross Down, alongside over a dozen additional signals. This broad-based alignment of oscillators and directional indicators points to a strong and consistent bearish push, with the probability rated at 100% and strength classified as very strong. The confluence across multiple momentum and trend-following tools suggests that selling pressure is not isolated to a single indicator but is confirmed across the board.

Across timeframes, the bearish trend is consistent, though the strength scores are low (mostly 1/5) and the trend is described as choppy/sideways on most timeframes. Only the 15-minute chart shows a forming trend with a slightly higher score of 2/5. This indicates that while the direction is uniformly bearish, the momentum is not yet robust at higher timeframes, which could limit the sustainability of the move. Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 158.336 and nearest support at 156.962. A break below support would confirm the bearish continuation, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Broad alignment of multiple momentum and directional indicators (BOP, CCI, DI, DM, MOM, ROC, ROCR, STOCH) all crossing down.
▼ Consistent bearish trend across all timeframes from 15m to 1D, even if choppy.
▼ Nearest resistance at 158.336 provides a clear invalidation level; price is below it, supporting the bearish setup.
▼ High probability and very strong strength rating from the signal engine.

Risk Factors

▲ Low trend strength scores (mostly 1/5) indicate the bearish trend is weak and could easily reverse into range-bound action.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions on higher timeframes may lead to false signals or limited downside follow-through.
▲ If price reclaims the 158.336 resistance, the bearish signal is invalidated and a bounce could occur.
▲ The 100% probability is unusual and may reflect overfitting; traders should exercise caution and use proper risk management.