USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 3× UPDATED

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC 1 day ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.08 %

Entry

158.229

Target

157.397 +0.53 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.768 −0.34 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 7 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 634 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 634 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.45 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.33 % 17 % at stop avg −0.48 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ALMA Retreat Down, MAMA PRICE Retreat Down, HMA Retreat Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,060 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +21% Swing

▲ Bullish 5 % (1.97) ▼ Bearish 95 % (36.82)

model score 6.6 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 8 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 3h
13:30TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 3h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 3h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 4× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 4× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC, updated 3× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.28
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.21
▲	SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.90
▼	MAMA PRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.83
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.70
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.64
▲	HT SINE Cross Up	indicator	1.58
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.28
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.12
▼	TSI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.02
▲	Northern Doji	candlestick	0.85

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish alignment across all timeframes, but momentum is weak and choppy.
Multiple indicators (BOP, STOCH, TSI, DEMA, ALMA) confirm the sell signal.
Watch for a break below 157.397 to confirm further downside; resistance at 158.768 is the key invalidation zone.
HT SINE Cross Up hints at a possible short-term bounce, so manage risk accordingly.

The USD/JPY 4H signal is firmly bearish, with a broad alignment of indicators pointing to downward momentum. The confluence of BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCH OB Exit, and TSI Signal Cross Down underscores selling pressure, while DEMA and ALMA Retreat Down confirm a pullback in moving averages. The MAMA PRICE Retreat Down and SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up add further weight, suggesting the market is exiting a squeeze phase to the downside. The HT SINE Cross Up, however, introduces a note of caution, as it may indicate a short-term counter-trend bounce within the larger bearish structure.

Across all timeframes, from 15 minutes to daily, the trend is consistently bearish, though the choppy/sideways nature (1/5 strength) indicates weak momentum and a lack of clear directional drive. This suggests the bearish move may be more of a grind than a sharp decline. Key levels to monitor are the nearest resistance at 158.768, which should cap any upside attempts, and the nearest support at 157.397, a break of which would confirm further downside. The moderate strength and high probability (69%) support a sell bias, but traders should be prepared for potential consolidation near these levels.

Catalysts

▼ Consistent bearish trend across all timeframes from 15m to daily.
▼ Confluence of multiple indicator groups (candlestick and indicator) firing bearish signals.
▼ Price retreating below key moving averages (DEMA, ALMA) supports continued downside.
▼ Exit from squeeze phase (SQUEEZE Zero Cross Up) often precedes directional moves.

Risk Factors

▲ Choppy/sideways price action (1/5 strength) could lead to false breakouts or range-bound trading.
▲ HT SINE Cross Up may signal a short-term bounce that could stall the decline.
▲ A move above the nearest resistance at 158.768 would invalidate the bearish setup.
▲ Weak momentum across timeframes suggests the trend may lack follow-through.