USD/JPY – 8H – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-11-09 06:00 UTC 20 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.12 %

Entry

157.918

Target

156.962 +0.61 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.768 −0.54 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 10 candles (3.3 days), at the market price · now candle 2 of 10

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 8h signals ended in profit · on average +0.01 % per trade 352 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 352 closed forex 8h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

20 % at target avg +0.66 % 31 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.41 % 31 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.43 % 18 % at stop avg −0.63 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: Stoch Regular Bear Div, RSI Hidden Bear Div, Momentum Regular Bear Div +20 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,060 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +20% Swing

▲ Bullish 4 % (2.05) ▼ Bearish 96 % (54.67)

model score 11.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%in 3h
13:30TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 3h
13:30TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 3h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	Stoch Regular Bear Div	divergence	3.01
▼	RSI Hidden Bear Div	divergence	2.48
▼	Momentum Regular Bear Div	divergence	2.02
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.67
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.49
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.33
▼	ZLMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.32
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.29
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.23
▼	CCI Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.22
▼	BBANDS MIDDLE Cross Down	indicator	1.20
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.20
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.14
▼	KELTNER MID Cross Down	indicator	1.12
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.07
▼	RSI Midline Cross Down	indicator	1.03
▼	BIAS Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.00
▼	CMO Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.98
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	0.91
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	0.86
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	0.85
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.62
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.50

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A very strong bearish signal fired on USD/JPY 8H with multiple momentum and trend indicators crossing down.
Bearish trend is present across all timeframes, but higher timeframes are choppy/sideways, indicating a possible consolidation phase.
Nearest support at 156.962 is the key downside target; a break below could accelerate selling.
Resistance at 158.768 is the invalidation level; a move above would negate the bearish signal.

The USD/JPY 8H signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish crossovers, including BOP, CCI, CMO, MACD, RSI, STOCH, and BBANDS MIDDLE all crossing down, alongside an EMA 200 retreat. This confluence of momentum, volatility, and trend indicators points to a strong bearish push. The signal strength is rated very strong with 100% probability, and the signal groups span candlestick, divergence, indicator, and fibonacci patterns, reinforcing the bearish case. The bearish trend is consistent across all timeframes from 15m to 1d, though the higher timeframes (2H and above) are currently choppy/sideways, which may temper the immediate follow-through.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.768 and the nearest support at 156.962. A break below support could open the door for further downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. Given the choppy nature of the higher timeframes, traders should watch for a decisive move beyond these levels to confirm the trend's continuation.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of over 20 signals across candlestick, divergence, indicator, and fibonacci groups.
▼ All timeframes align in a bearish direction, supporting the overall downtrend.
▼ Strong trend scores and very strong signal strength suggest robust selling pressure.
▼ RSI and MACD crossovers confirm momentum shift to the downside.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2H and above) are choppy/sideways, which could lead to false breakouts or range-bound trading.
▲ A move above the nearest resistance at 158.768 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
▲ Fading momentum is possible if the price stalls near support without a decisive break.
▲ The very high probability rating may lead to overconfidence; always use proper risk management.