USD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL Counter-trend NEW

2026-11-11 04:00 UTC 13 minutes ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.00 %

Entry

158.824

Target

157.872 +0.60 %

closes in profit

Stop

159.599 −0.49 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 0 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 3,319 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 3,319 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

18 % at target avg +0.24 % 33 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.11 % 39 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.13 % 10 % at stop avg −0.35 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: STOCH KD Cross Down, SMI Signal Cross Down, BOP Zero Cross Down +8 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 38,060 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % – first candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +6% Scalping

▲ Bullish 13 % (1.96) ▼ Bearish 87 % (13.44)

model score 87.3 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.3 % vs 18.7 % on average · stopped out 14.6 % vs 12.4 % (forex, 684 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TomorrowUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 1 day
13:30TomorrowUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 1 day
15:00TomorrowUSDExisting Home Sales m/m●●○Forecast 0.0%Previous 1.5%in 1 day

All times UTC.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (11 Nov 2026, 04:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	HT SINE Cross Up	indicator	1.96
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.53
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.52
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.42
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.40
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.38
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.28
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.94
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.85
▼	Bearish Separating Lines	candlestick	0.84
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	0.78
▼	Last Engulfing Top	candlestick	0.73

Trend Context

15M

UPChoppy / sideways

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong bearish signal cluster on the 30m chart, led by a Bearish Engulfing and multiple momentum crossovers.
Immediate target is the nearest support at 157.87200; watch for a break below to confirm further downside.
Trend is mixed: 30m/1h are bullish, but longer timeframes (12h/1d) are bearish, so the sell signal may be a pullback within a larger bullish trend.
Invalidation level: a daily close above 158.85000 would negate the bearish setup.

The 30-minute USD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern and reinforced by momentum oscillators (STOCH KD Cross Down, SMI Signal Cross Down), trend filters (TTM TREND Trend Down, DEMA Retreat Down), and volume/flow indicators (BOP Zero Cross Down, ER Level Cross Down). The HT SINE Cross Up adds a cyclical overlay that typically aligns with short-term downside pressure. With 12 signals in total and a very strong probability score of 87%, the immediate bias is clearly bearish, targeting the nearest support at 157.87200.

However, the broader trend structure is mixed. While the 30m and 1h timeframes show solid bullish trends, the 15m, 2h, 4h, and 8h are bullish but choppy or only forming, and the 12h and 1d are bearish. This creates a conflicting picture: the short-term bearish signal fights against the medium-term bullish trend. The key resistance at 158.85000 is the invalidation zone; a break above that would negate the bearish setup. Conversely, a sustained move below 157.87200 would confirm the downside and likely accelerate selling.

Catalysts

▼ High signal confluence: 12 indicators and patterns all pointing down on the same timeframe.
▼ Bearish Engulfing pattern provides a clear candlestick reversal trigger.
▼ Momentum oscillators (STOCH, SMI) and trend filters (TTM, DEMA) align in the same direction.
▼ The HT SINE Cross Up adds a cyclical component that often precedes short-term declines.

Risk Factors

▲ The 30m and 1h trends are still bullish, so the sell signal could be a pullback rather than a reversal.
▲ The 15m, 2h, 4h, and 8h timeframes are bullish, though choppy, which may limit downside follow-through.
▲ A break above the 158.85000 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup and likely trigger a rally.
▲ The 12h and 1d are bearish but weak (1/5 strength), so longer-term support may be fragile.