US dollar USD · Forecast & Analysis
The US dollar stands neutral: Fed hawkishness and a stronger-than-expected October CPI argue for higher rates, yet a December hike is nearly fully priced and many economists see it as the last. With no price history to weigh, conviction stays limited.
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Outlook for US Dollar
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: there is no price data for this asset. Based on 355 news items.
What drives it
- Fed Governor Waller backs a December hike, possibly a half-point move if core inflation stays hot.
- October CPI beat expectations, pushing market odds of a December hike to 99%.
- Q3 growth of 3.4% and unemployment at 4.1% reinforce the case for further Fed tightening.
- The dollar index recovered to around 101.70 after Waller's remarks, and the two-year yield rose to 4.69%.
What argues against it
- A Reuters poll splits 56 to 45 on whether December is the final hike, capping further dollar gains.
- With a 25bp December move near-unanimously expected, much of the tightening is already priced in.
- Headline inflation slowed from September's pace, and Waller himself expects growth to back off this quarter.
- Hawkish ECB commentary could limit dollar gains against the euro.
What would change the picture
- US data due in the coming days, from jobless claims to PPI and retail sales, could shift Fed rate expectations.
- The December 9 Fed decision: a half-point hike would extend the dollar's support, a hold would undercut it.
- How other Fed officials respond to Waller's half-point idea, which so far is one governor's view.
Coming up
- US: 10-Year Note Auction
- US: Jobless claims
- US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
Economic data for USD
Full calendarRecently released
- TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%
- TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%
- TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%
- TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298
- TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%
- TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%
- TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896
Coming up
- TodayUSD10-Year Note Auction●●○in 25m
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 1 day
- November 12, 2026USDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 1 day
- November 12, 2026USDEIA Crude Oil Stocks Change●●●in 1 day
- November 13, 2026USDCore PPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 0.7%in 2 days
- November 13, 2026USDPPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.4%Previous 1.3%in 2 days
- November 17, 2026USDCore Retail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.7%Previous 0.9%in 6 days
- November 17, 2026USDRetail Sales m/m●●●Forecast 0.3%Previous 0.8%in 6 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Height = net direction of the day.
What is being reported about USD
In-depth analysis of US Dollar
AI-generated · as of November 10, 2026
The dollar's recent news flow leans firmly hawkish, yet the verdict stays neutral, and the reason lies in what markets have already absorbed. Fed Governor Waller spent Tuesday arguing for more tightening sooner rather than later, floating a half-point December hike if October core inflation came in around 0.3% or higher.
Read full analysis
The print then beat expectations, odds of a December move jumped to 99%, and the two-year yield rose 14 basis points to 4.69%. The dollar index duly recovered from an intraday low of 101.49 to around 101.70, and an FXS gauge of Fed sentiment jumped deep into hawkish territory. But the reaction was modest: the index had fallen 0.60% the day before, and a 0.3% gain on the CPI headlines is small by the greenback's standards. With all 101 economists in a Reuters poll expecting a 25bp hike on December 9, that outcome is largely in the price, and 56 of them see it as the cycle's final increase. Waller is also a single voice — he voted to hold at the last FOMC meeting and expects growth to slow this quarter. Hawkish ECB commentary adds another cap against the euro. No price history is available for this asset, so the read rests entirely on the news flow and the USD calendar. More data lands in the coming days: jobless claims, then producer prices and retail sales, each capable of firming or softening the December story before the Fed decides.
Frequently asked questions about US Dollar
Why is the dollar rated neutral when the recent news has all been hawkish?
Because the hawkish case is largely priced already. All 101 economists in a Reuters poll expect a 25bp December hike, so the hot CPI and Waller's speech confirm expectations rather than change them, and 56 of those economists see December as the final increase. The index's gain after the CPI beat was modest, and the half-point idea is one governor's view, not settled Fed policy.
What exactly did Fed Governor Waller say, and how much weight should it carry?
He said further tightening is needed sooner rather than later, would support a quarter-point December hike even if inflation improves, and would back a half-point move if October core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. He voted to hold rates at the most recent meeting, though, so his remarks signal a direction of thinking rather than a decided policy path.
What should I watch that could change the dollar's picture?
The run of US data in the coming days: jobless claims, then producer prices and retail sales. Stronger-than-expected figures would strengthen the case for more Fed tightening, softer ones would ease it. The December 9 Fed decision is the key date — a larger hike would renew dollar support, while a hold or clear signs that December is the last move would weaken it.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
USD has been the subject of 1411 signals across 1411 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bullish (49%).
Breakdown: 685 bullish, 536 bearish, 190 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Fed rate hike expectations (4×), Safe-haven flows into the dollar (4×), Falling US Treasury yields (4×). Most-cited risk factors: Stronger-than-expected US economic data (4×), Unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance (4×), Strong US economic data supporting the dollar (3×).
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