News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

AUD/USD Slips to 0.6860 as US Jobs Data Boosts Fed Hike Odds to 79.6%

AUD/USD faces downward pressure near 0.6860 following strong US employment figures and hawkish Fed sentiment, with traders now awaiting China's upcoming CPI inflation report.

🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 0 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: AUD/USD ↓ 6/10 (75% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

AUD/USD
Bearish 🤖 75%
📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

October US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 165,000 versus 65,000 expected, with unemployment falling to 4.1%, lifting the odds of a December Fed hike to 79.6% and pushing hawkish Fed sentiment higher (FXS index 143.10). Combined with RBA credibility worries after Hauser's warning, spot broke below 0.69 for the first time since early July and trades near 0.6860. Technicals below all key moving averages reinforce the bearish bias, though RSI near 33 hints at oversold conditions.

Catalysts
  • ▼ US NFP of 165,000 in October vs 65,000 expected; unemployment down to 4.1%
  • ▼ CME FedWatch December hike probability at 79.6% after hawkish Daly speech
Risk Factors
  • ▲ RSI (14) near 33 is approaching oversold territory, which could trigger a bounce
  • ▲ A sustained break back above 0.6875 would be the first signal sellers are losing control

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, exceeding market expectations of 65,000.
  • The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October from 4.2% in September.
  • CME FedWatch data shows a 79.6% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate hike at the December meeting.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia recently raised the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%.
  • AUD/USD technicals show the pair trading below all key moving averages with an RSI near 33.

📝 Executive Summary

The Australian Dollar trades near 0.6860 as robust US labor data fuels expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. October Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 165,000, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to 79.6% and weighing on the pair as it breaks below key technical support levels.

❓ FAQ

What levels should I watch on AUD/USD?

Immediate support is seen at 0.6865 and resistance at 0.6875 (lower Bollinger Band), with further hurdles at the Bollinger midline 0.6985, the 100-day SMA near 0.7025, and 0.7080-0.7090.