News report 💱 Forex 🌍 United Kingdom

GBP/USD Holds Gains at 1.3445 as Markets Await US October CPI Inflation Data

GBP/USD trades near 1.3445, supported by the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, while traders weigh the BoE's hawkish 4.00% rate policy against an 84% probability of a Fed rate hike next month.

🕐 1 min read

1 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: GBP/USD ↑ 3/10 (50% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (1)

GBP/USD
Bullish 🤖 50%
📅 Short-term 🌍 GB · Explicit

The pair trades positive around 1.3445 and holds above the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, keeping a modest bullish bias with resistance near the Bollinger upper band at 1.3500. The hawkish BoE hike to 4.00% supports Sterling, but dovish comments from BoE chief economist Pill and strong Fed rate-hike odds (84% for next month) after a strong US jobs report cap the upside. The US October CPI release later today is the key near-term risk.

Catalysts
  • ▲ US October CPI inflation report due later on Tuesday
  • ▲ BoE raised rates by 25 bps to 4.00% last week with a conditional tightening bias
Risk Factors
  • ▼ Markets price an 84% chance of a Fed rate hike next month, supporting the Dollar
  • ▼ BoE chief economist Pill signals possible rate holds or cuts in 2026, a dovish shift negative for GBP

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

  • The Bank of England raised interest rates by 25 bps to 4.00% last week, matching the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate range.
  • Markets are pricing in an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month following a strong US jobs report.
  • The GBP/USD pair maintains a constructive bias as long as it holds above the 100-day SMA support level of 1.3400.
  • Resistance is identified at the Bollinger upper band near 1.3500, with a potential target of 1.3568 if broken.

📝 Executive Summary

The GBP/USD pair maintains a constructive bias, trading around 1.3445 as it holds above the 100-day SMA of 1.3400. While the Bank of England's recent 25 bps rate hike to 4.00% supports the Pound, investors remain cautious ahead of today's US October CPI report and strong Fed rate-hike expectations of 84%.

❓ FAQ

Why is GBP/USD holding above 1.3400?

The pair stays above the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3400 after the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, keeping a modest bullish bias as long as that support holds.

What could move the pair in the coming days?

The US October CPI inflation report is the immediate risk, and a sustained move above the 1.3500 Bollinger band resistance could target the September 9 high of 1.3568, while a break below 1.3400 could expose 1.3370 and 1.3272.