TD Securities projects USD/KRW will retrace toward 1400, citing the Won's high sensitivity to AI-led equity market volatility and low global yield levels despite 2026 Bank of Korea rate hikes.
TD Securities argues USD/KRW could retrace higher toward 1400 because the Won has the highest positive correlation to the US vs RoW equity ratio, so a persistent AI-led equity rout would drive further KRW losses. This is an analyst view, not a hard data release, and it is conditional on the equity weakness continuing. Low KRW yields despite modest Bank of Korea hikes in 2026 are cited as confirmation.
TD Securities forecasts a rise in USD/KRW toward 1400, driven by a rotation out of the AI build-out theme. Analysts note that the Korean Won maintains the highest positive correlation to the US versus rest-of-world equity ratio, making it vulnerable to persistent global equity weakness. Despite modest rate hikes by the Bank of Korea in 2026, low domestic yields provide little support against the strengthening Dollar.
TD Securities expects the pair to retrace higher toward 1400 as the Won weakens against the Dollar if AI-led equity weakness persists.
The Won has the highest positive correlation to the US versus rest-of-world equity ratio and a positive link to US equities, so equity weakness tends to drag it lower.