News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.1050 as US Dollar Strengthens on Fed Hike Bets

EUR/USD tracks toward a third weekly loss as the US Dollar rallies on persistent Fed tightening bets, overshadowing softer-than-expected US producer inflation data and weak Eurozone employment figures.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/USD ↓ 5/10 (75% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair trades around 1.1050 near its lowest level since May 2025 and heads for a third straight weekly loss. Markets fully price a 25-bps Fed hike in December with a small chance of 50 bps, while the softer October PPI (+0.3% MoM vs 0.4% forecast) drew little reaction. Dovish relief from the data is offset by hawkish Fed rhetoric and elevated Eurozone employment risks.

Catalysts

▼ US PPI +0.3% MoM in October, below the 0.4% forecast
▼ December Fed rate hike fully priced per CME FedWatch, with a small chance of 50 bps

Risk Factors

▲ All 71 economists in the Reuters poll expect an ECB 25-bps hike to 2.75% in December
▲ PPI came in softer than forecast, which could temper rate-hike bets if followed by weaker data

USD

Bullish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

The dollar strengthened broadly, with DXY near 103.20 just below its 19-month high of 103.30. Traders fully price a 25-bps Fed hike in December with a small chance of 50 bps plus another hike in January, and Fed officials including Goolsbee ('work to do') and Logan ('at least two more 25-bps hikes') back further tightening. The softer PPI did little to curb these bets.

Catalysts

▲ December 25-bps Fed hike fully priced, small chance of 50 bps, plus another hike expected in January
▲ DXY near 19-month high of 103.30 after touching 103.20

Risk Factors

▼ October PPI rose only 0.3% MoM, below the 0.4% forecast, which could eventually soften hike bets
▼ Annual producer inflation at 6.5% came in just below the 6.6% forecast

EUR

Bearish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 DE · Explicit

The euro lost ground against the dollar (-0.07% today) and most major peers as Fed tightening bets favour the dollar. Eurozone Q3 GDP grew 0.4% QoQ and 1.3% YoY, only in line with forecasts, while employment was flat against a 0.2% increase expected, weakening the growth case for the currency.

Catalysts

▼ Q3 GDP +0.4% QoQ, only in line with forecasts
▼ Employment flat QoQ vs +0.2% expected; annual employment growth slowed to 0.4%

Risk Factors

▲ All 71 polled economists expect an ECB hike to 2.75% in December
▲ ECB could go beyond the final hike if energy costs feed through to wages

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

The US Dollar Index trades near 103.20, remaining close to its 19-month high of 103.30.
October US producer inflation rose 0.3% MoM, missing the 0.4% forecast.
Eurozone employment remained flat in the third quarter, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase.
All 71 economists in a Reuters poll expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 bps to 2.75% in December.
Traders are fully pricing in a 25-bps Fed rate hike for December with a small chance of a 50-bps increase.

📝 Executive Summary

The Euro remains under pressure, trading near 1.1050 as the US Dollar maintains strength near a 19-month high of 103.30. Despite October producer inflation rising a modest 0.3% MoM, markets remain focused on hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and expectations for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, Eurozone economic data shows stagnant employment growth, with economists in a Reuters poll unanimously predicting a final 25-bps ECB rate hike to 2.75% in December.

❓ FAQ

EUR/USD · Why is the euro falling against the dollar?

Bets that the Fed will keep hiking rates support the dollar, and this week's hotter US consumer inflation plus hawkish Fed officials outweighed the slightly softer producer price report, pushing EUR/USD near its lowest level since May 2025.

EUR/USD · Could the ECB help the euro?

All 71 economists in a Reuters poll expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December, but most see it as the final hike of the cycle, so the support may be limited.

USD · What is driving the dollar higher?

Markets fully price a 25-bps Fed rate hike in December with a small chance of 50 bps, and expect another hike in January, after hot US consumer inflation and hawkish comments from Fed officials.

USD · Did the PPI report change anything?

The October PPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly below the 0.4% forecast, but the report drew little market reaction and did little to temper rate-hike bets.

EUR · Is the ECB going to raise rates?

All 71 economists in Thursday's Reuters poll expect a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75% in December, with most seeing it as the last hike of the cycle and 25 expecting one more, most likely in early 2027.

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