News report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 United States

Gold Slips to 3,909 USD as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 14.5%

Gold hits a one-year low of 3,909 USD as hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising energy costs drive a shift toward the US dollar, with technical indicators signaling further potential declines toward 3,777 USD.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Commodities, Forex). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: XAU ↓ 7/10 (80% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

XAU

Bearish 🤖 80%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Gold fell to 3,909 USD per ounce on Friday, its lowest level in almost a year, driven by stronger-than-expected CPI and hawkish Fed commentary, with Waller floating a 50-basis-point December hike now priced at about 14.5% probability. Higher energy prices after Trump's Iran comments add to inflation and tightening fears. The upcoming October PPI (expected +6.6% headline, +5.0% core) is the next direct catalyst; a strong print would extend the pressure.

Catalysts

▼ October US PPI release with headline expected +6.6% y/y and core +5.0%
▼ Markets price ~14.5% probability of a 50bp Fed hike in December after stronger-than-expected CPI

Risk Factors

▲ Safe-haven demand is partially offsetting the negative impact of higher rates
▲ A sustained move above 3,924 USD and 3,960 USD would invalidate the bearish scenario

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Stronger-than-expected CPI earlier in the week raised expectations of a December Fed rate hike, with a 50-basis-point move priced at roughly 14.5% versus almost zero before Tuesday. Hawkish Fed rhetoric and rising oil prices from renewed Iran tensions reinforce the tightening outlook. The hawkish backdrop supports the dollar, though the October PPI outcome remains the key risk.

Catalysts

▲ December Fed rate-hike expectations at ~14.5% for a 50bp move after Tuesday's CPI
▲ October US PPI release expected to show headline +6.6% y/y

Risk Factors

▼ A soft PPI print could unwind some of the hawkish repricing
▼ Safe-haven demand flows may partially counter rate-driven dollar strength

USOIL

Bullish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Trump stated on Thursday that the US does not need an agreement with Iran, reducing the chances of an early end to the conflict, and oil prices rose sharply following these comments. Supply-risk escalation from the unresolved conflict is a direct bullish driver, though the article does not give specific oil price levels.

Catalysts

▲ Trump's Thursday comments that the US does not need an agreement with Iran
▲ Rising oil prices following the comments amid renewed conflict risk

Risk Factors

▼ Any re-emergence of hopes for an early end to the conflict could reverse the oil price jump

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Gold fell to 3,909 USD per ounce, its lowest level in nearly a year.
Markets now price a 14.5% probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December.
October US PPI is expected to show headline inflation at +6.6% and core at +5.0%.
Technical analysis targets 3,852 USD and 3,777 USD as the downward trend persists.

📝 Executive Summary

Gold prices dropped to 3,909 USD per ounce, marking a one-year low as markets price in a 14.5% chance of a 50-basis-point Fed hike in December. Rising oil prices, fueled by geopolitical tensions, are further stoking inflation fears and strengthening the US dollar, keeping the precious metal under significant downward pressure.

❓ FAQ

XAU · Why is gold falling despite being a safe haven?

Persistent US inflation and expectations of further Fed rate hikes, including a possible 50-basis-point move in December, are pushing rates higher, which reduces the appeal of the non-yielding metal.

XAU · What could turn gold around in the coming days?

A weaker-than-expected October PPI release or a sustained move above the 3,924–3,960 USD resistance zone would weaken the bearish scenario and force a reassessment of targets.

USD · What is driving dollar strength now?

Persistent US inflation, hawkish Fed commentary including the possibility of a 50-basis-point December hike, and rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict all support a restrictive Fed policy stance that favors the dollar.

USD · What is the next data point to watch?

The October US PPI, with headline expected to rise 6.6% year-on-year and core 5.0%.

USOIL · Why did oil prices rise sharply?

After Trump said on Thursday that the US does not need an agreement with Iran, reducing the chances of an early end to the conflict, oil prices rose sharply on supply and inflation concerns.

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