Bitcoin rallied above $81,000 on Thursday and climbed further Friday, boosted by falling Treasury yields and easing Federal Reserve rate-hike worries, with analysts including Bernstein calling the crypto winter close to over and targeting $150,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin jumped more than 5% on Thursday to trade above $81,000 and added another 4% on Friday as Treasury yields dropped and Fed rate-hike worries eased. The token rallied 25% in August, helped by Treasury intervention in the bond market and assistance to Japan. Analysts including Fundstrat and Bernstein see the move as evidence the crypto bear market is bottoming, with Bernstein targeting $150,000 by year-end.
Fundstrat's Sean Farrell says bitcoin has bucked the negative September trend for three straight years, so seasonality is not a foolproof system. The current rally is driven by falling Treasury yields and easing Fed rate-hike worries.
David Grider of Finality Capital says a post-FOMC rally could take bitcoin higher if the Fed surprises with a rate hold or yields fall sharply after the first rate hike.
Bitcoin is roughly 35% below its record high of more than $126,000 set in early October 2025, and down about 7% year to date.
The article reports Treasury yields dropped as Fed rate-hike worries eased, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted at holding rates unchanged if inflation eases. Falling yields are a key catalyst for bitcoin and other hard assets.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation eases, and the Treasury Department's intervention in the bond market helped lower yields.
Surging oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh raised concerns about the Fed's September rate decision, which could lift yields.
Gold was explicitly named alongside crypto as a beneficiary of Treasury Department intervention in the bond market and assistance to Japan. The same hard-asset bid that lifted bitcoin in August is supporting gold.
The article says Treasury intervention in the bond market and assistance to Japan helped lift gold and crypto assets, with both seen as hard assets benefiting from yield-curve intervention.
Hawkish Fed comments and surging oil prices gave back some gains, so a Fed rate hike or market correction would likely pressure gold.
The article says 'crypto and broader equities' could mount a rally post-FOMC, driven by a surprise Fed rate hold or sharply falling yields. A market correction, however, would hit both equities and bitcoin.
Finality Capital's David Grider said crypto and broader equities could mount a rally post-FOMC, driven by a surprise Fed rate hold or sharply falling yields.
A market correction would likely hit both equities and bitcoin, with surging oil prices and hawkish Fed comments as key risks.
Easing Fed rate-hike worries and falling Treasury yields typically weigh on the dollar. Waller's hint at holding rates unchanged if inflation eases reduces the dollar's yield support, a macro backdrop consistent with bitcoin's rise.
Easing Fed rate-hike worries and falling Treasury yields reduce the dollar's yield advantage. Waller's hint at holding rates steady if inflation eases further undermines dollar support.
Surging oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh raised concerns about a September rate hike, which could lift the dollar.
Bitcoin jumped more than 5% on Thursday to trade above $81,000 and added 4% on Friday as Treasury yields dropped and Fed rate-hike worries eased. The token's 25% August rally, helped by Treasury intervention in the bond market, has analysts including Fundstrat and Bernstein calling the crypto bear market close to over. Bernstein maintains a $150,000 year-end target, with a post-FOMC rally possible into late September.
Bitcoin rallied more than 5% on Thursday as worries about a Federal Reserve rate hike eased and Treasury yields dropped. Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation eases, supporting risk assets including crypto.
Bitcoin has posted negative returns in September in nine of the past 15 years, but Fundstrat's Sean Farrell notes the token has bucked that trend for the past three years, so seasonality is not a foolproof trading system.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani placed a $150,000 year-end price target on bitcoin and called a bottom earlier this year, arguing Treasury intervention in the yield curve keeps the bid on hard assets like bitcoin.