AUD/JPY – 30M – SELL

SELL 2× UPDATED

2026-10-06 08:00 UTC 1 hour ago

55.7 % ↓ −3.6 zur Vorkerze

WEAK Scalping

▲ Bullish 28 % (6.22) ▼ Bearish 72 % (15.62)

5 of 10 signals like this one ended in profit

52.5% of closed signals in this class ended above zero

model score 71.5 — ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the figure above is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Überzeugung · 3 Kerzen

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (6 Oct 2026, 05:30 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	2.33
▼	BBANDS UPPER Retreat Down	indicator	2.18
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.80
▼	STOCHRSI KD Cross Down	indicator	1.54
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.41
▲	APO Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.28
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	1.24
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.83

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A dense bearish cluster (Bearish Engulfing, Spinning Top, BB retreat, HMA turn, BOP zero cross) signals a likely short-term pullback or reversal.
Shorter timeframes (15m/30m) are bullish, but longer timeframes (4h to daily) are bearish, creating a mixed trend context.
Watch the nearest support at 109.92900; a break below would confirm the bearish move, while a hold could lead to a bounce.
The signal is very strong (91% probability), but traders should confirm with price action at support.

The 30-minute AUD/JPY chart has fired a dense cluster of bearish signals, led by a Bearish Engulfing candlestick and a Spinning Top, both of which suggest a loss of upside momentum. This is reinforced by a retreat from the upper Bollinger Band, a negative HMA turn, and a Zero Cross Down on the Balance of Power indicator, while the APO has just crossed up, hinting the short-term impulse may be losing steam. The STOCHRSI KD Cross Down and an extreme-high ZSCORE exit further point to an overbought condition that is now unwinding. Together, these signals argue for a pullback or reversal lower from the recent high.

However, the broader context is mixed. The 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes are still bullish, with the 30-minute trend described as solid, while the 1-hour and 2-hour are bullish but choppy. In contrast, the 4-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily timeframes are all bearish, with the 8-hour and 12-hour showing solid trends. This alignment—shorter-term bullish but longer-term bearish—suggests the sell signal may be a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend, or the start of a reversal. The nearest support sits at 109.92900, and a break below that level would confirm the bearish momentum. Resistance is not defined, so the recent high acts as a key pivot.

Catalysts

▼ Strong confluence of bearish indicators and candlestick patterns on the 30-minute chart.
▼ Longer-term timeframes (4h, 8h, 12h, daily) are all bearish, aligning with the sell signal.
▼ Overbought conditions (ZSCORE extreme high, STOCHRSI cross down) suggest room for a downside correction.
▼ A clear support level at 109.92900 provides a target for the move.

Risk Factors

▲ Shorter-term bullish trends (15m solid, 30m solid) could overpower the signal and lead to a bounce instead of a breakdown.
▲ The signal is on a 30-minute timeframe, which is prone to whipsaws; a false break below support is possible.
▲ If price holds above 109.92900 and forms a bullish reversal pattern, the sell signal would be invalidated.
▲ The 1-hour and 2-hour trends are bullish (even if choppy), which could provide support and limit downside.