AUD/JPY leans bearish: hawkish BoJ minutes, risk-off flows hitting the risk-sensitive Aussie and weak Australian business confidence outweigh a fresh low-timeframe bounce. Both the technical picture and the news flow point down, after a clear fall over the past week.
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No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 92 news items.
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on AUDJPY.
Every higher timeframe from four hours to the daily chart trends lower, and the news side backs that direction. Fresh bullish clusters on the 15-minute to 2-hour charts describe a counter-trend bounce that stays intact only while resistance near 111.3 holds the price down.
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One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
Last 72 hours
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on AUD/JPY; in the news verdict they count half.
The bullish signals all sit on the 15-minute to 2-hour charts and are classic counter-trend bounces after a fall. The higher timeframes, which set the direction for the week and month, are still trending down, and the news flow backs that. The bounce would need to reclaim resistance near 111.303 to change the picture.
A stronger yen is what pushes this cross down, and GDP is the next test of the tightening story. If growth comes in better than expected, it strengthens the case for a near-term BoJ rate hike and supports the bearish view; a weak print, following the slump in household spending, would soften the yen and could fuel the bounce.
The yen is gaining from hawkish BoJ minutes and safe-haven demand, while the Aussie is exposed to risk appetite. The AI and equity sell-off hit it hardest among G10 peers, and Australian business confidence and forward orders weakened sharply, giving the RBA's earlier hike little traction for the currency.
AUD/JPY has been the subject of 25 signals across 25 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (56%).
Breakdown: 6 bullish, 14 bearish, 5 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: Global risk aversion from dollar swings (1×), Carry trade liquidation (1×), Australia's relatively high cash rate vs Japan's ultra-low rates (1×). Most-cited risk factors: If risk appetite recovers (1×), Australian RBA rate hike supports AUD (1×), RBA rate cuts (1×).
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