USD/JPY – 30M – BUY

BUY NEW

2026-10-16 06:00 UTC 1 hour ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.07 %

Entry

157.960

Target

158.949 +0.63 %

closes in profit

Stop

157.546 −0.26 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 16 candles (8 hours), at the market price · now candle 2 of 16

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 30m signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,786 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,786 closed forex 30m signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

17 % at target avg +0.24 % 34 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.10 % 40 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.12 % 9 % at stop avg −0.38 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up, STOCH KD Cross Up, BOP Zero Cross Up +3 more

Trend at entry: in 1 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 23,094 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % – vs previous candle

WEAK ⚡ Confluence +6% Scalping

▲ Bullish 63 % (9.77) ▼ Bearish 37 % (5.73)

model score 5.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 7 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 10.0 % vs 18.1 % on average · stopped out 16.7 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 330 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 2× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 2× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (16 Oct 2026, 03:30 UTC). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	ICHIMOKU TK Cross Down	indicator	2.22
▲	BBANDS LOWER Retreat Up	indicator	2.03
▲	STOCH KD Cross Up	indicator	1.81
▼	EMA CROSS 20 50 Death Cross	indicator	1.81
▼	HT SINE Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.71
▲	BOP Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.68
▲	STC OS Entry	indicator	1.49
▲	Long Legged Doji	candlestick	1.12
▲	Bullish Harami Cross	candlestick	1.11

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

The signal is a counter-trend BUY in a broader bearish context; only the 1-day timeframe is bullish.
Watch the 158.24700 resistance: a break above would strengthen the case, but a failure keeps the bearish bias.
The 157.93000 support is the invalidation level; a close below it negates the signal.
The signal is weak with mixed indicators; confirmation from higher timeframes is essential.

The USD/JPY 30-minute signal is a BUY with a 63% probability, but the underlying trend across most timeframes is bearish, which creates a conflicting backdrop. The signal is driven by a cluster of short-term indicators: the BOP zero cross up, STOCH KD cross up, BBANDS lower retreat up, and a Bullish Harami Cross, all suggesting a potential bounce or reversal attempt. However, the EMA 20/50 Death Cross, HT SINE zero cross down, and ICHIMOKU TK cross down are bearish signals, indicating that the broader momentum remains negative. The only bullish timeframe is the 1-day, which is choppy/sideways, offering little support.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.24700 and support at 157.93000. A break above resistance would confirm the bullish intent, while a drop below support would invalidate the signal and likely resume the bearish trend. Given the weak strength and the bearish alignment on lower timeframes, this signal appears to be a counter-trend bounce rather than a sustained reversal. Traders should approach with caution, waiting for confirmation on higher timeframes before committing.

Catalysts

▲ Short-term bullish indicators (BOP, STOCH, BBANDS, Bullish Harami) cluster at the same time, suggesting a possible bounce.
▲ The 1-day timeframe is bullish, offering a long-term bullish anchor.
▲ The signal occurs near the support zone, which could attract buyers if price holds.

Risk Factors

▼ The overwhelming bearish trend across 15m to 12h timeframes argues against the BUY signal.
▼ The EMA Death Cross and HT SINE zero cross down indicate persistent downside pressure.
▼ A drop below 157.93000 support would invalidate the signal and likely trigger further declines.
▼ The signal strength is weak, and probability is only 63%, leaving significant room for failure.