USD/CAD – 4H – SELL

SELL 6× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-28 05:00 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed at target · result +0.64 %

Entry

1.40582

Target

1.39684 +0.64 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.43000 −1.72 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 541 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 541 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.43 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: EMA 200 Retreat Down, SMA 200 Retreat Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down +5 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 32,805 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.1 % vs 17.8 % on average · stopped out 14.2 % vs 12.1 % (forex, 577 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/CAD

Full calendar

15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing Employment●●○Forecast 51.4Previous 52.7in 9h
15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid●●●Forecast 80.7Previous 77.9in 9h
15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing PMI●●●Forecast 54.7Previous 54.5in 9h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC, updated 6× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.49
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.44
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.35
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.13
▼	Last Engulfing Top	candlestick	0.82
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.80
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.65
▼	Last Engulfing Bottom	candlestick	0.58

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPSolid trend

12H

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Bearish signal on 4H suggests short-term selling pressure, but higher timeframes are mostly bullish—treat as potential pullback.
Multiple candlestick patterns (Bearish Engulfing, Belt Hold Bearish) and indicator crosses reinforce the downside bias.
Watch 1.43000 resistance and 1.39684 support; a close below support could trigger further decline.
Daily timeframe remains bearish, providing some long-term bearish backdrop.

The 4H USD/CAD signal is a confluence of bearish momentum and candlestick patterns, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, EMA 200 and SMA 200 Retreat Down, and multiple bearish candlestick formations. However, the broader trend context is mixed: most timeframes (30m to 12h) are bullish or in early formation, while the 4H itself is bullish (forming, 2/5) and the daily is bearish. The 100% probability and very strong strength are driven by the alignment of these indicators on the 4H, but the higher timeframe divergence suggests this may be a counter-trend pullback within the larger bullish structure. Key levels: nearest resistance at 1.43000 and support at 1.39684. A break below support could confirm a deeper selloff, while a failure to hold below resistance may see a reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Strong confluence of bearish signals on 4H: BOP, Stochastics, EMA/SMA retreat, and candlestick patterns.
▼ Daily trend is bearish (solid, 3/5), supporting the possibility of a larger downtrend resuming.
▼ Very strong signal strength and 100% probability suggest high conviction in the model's output.
▼ Nearest support at 1.39684 offers a target if the selloff continues.

Risk Factors

▲ Most intraday timeframes (30m to 12h) are bullish, which could counteract the 4H bearish signal and lead to a bounce.
▲ The 4H trend itself is still marked bullish (forming), so the bearish signal may be premature.
▲ If price fails to break below the support at 1.39684, the bearish move could stall and reverse.
▲ Momentum indicators like BOP and Stochastics can produce false signals in ranging or trend-transition periods.