AUD/USD – 1H – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED

2026-11-04 14:00 UTC 13 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.04 %

Entry

0.70152

Target

0.69541 +0.87 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.70431 −0.40 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price · now candle 13 of 15

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,527 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,527 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.36 % 35 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 37 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.17 % 12 % at stop avg −0.38 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: ZSCORE Extreme High Exit, SMA 200 Retreat Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 3 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↑ +24.0 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG ⚡ Confluence +19% Intraday

▲ Bullish 12 % (2.45) ▼ Bearish 88 % (18.24)

model score 88.1 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 14 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 5 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.4 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 15.5 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 717 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for AUD/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 8h
13:30TodayUSDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 8h
13:30TodayUSDUnit Labor Costs q/q●●○Forecast 0.5%Previous 1.2%in 8h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 6× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 6× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	EMA CROSS 20 50 Golden Cross	indicator	2.79
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.63
▼	SMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.50
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.47
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.17
▼	KELTNER UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.00
▼	Spinning Top Bearish	candlestick	0.91

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple 1H indicators flash bearish (BOP, stochastic, Keltner, ZSCORE) – expect a short-term pullback.
Broader intraday trend is still bullish (15m-4H), so the sell signal is counter-trend and may be limited.
Key downside level to watch: support at 0.69541; a break below opens deeper bearish potential.
Resistance at 0.70431 is the invalidation level – a move above it negates the bearish setup.

The 1H AUD/USD signal stack is overwhelmingly bearish in the near term, despite the broader intraday trend still being labeled bullish. The confluence of multiple momentum and volatility indicators—BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, and the retreat from the Keltner Upper band—points to fading buying pressure and a likely pullback. The bearish candlestick pattern (Spinning Top Bearish) reinforces the idea that the recent up-move is losing steam, while the ZSCORE Extreme High Exit suggests price has stretched above its mean and is ripe for a mean reversion lower.

However, the trend picture is mixed. The 1H trend is still bullish, and all timeframes from 15m to 4H are bullish, which argues against a sustained selloff. The only bearish signals on higher timeframes are on the 8H, 12H, and 1D, but they are weak or forming. Therefore, this signal is best viewed as a short-term counter-trend pullback within a larger bullish structure, with the key downside target being the nearest support at 0.69541. A break below that level would shift the bias more decisively bearish, while a reclaim of the resistance at 0.70431 would invalidate the bearish case.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of bearish momentum signals (BOP, STOCHF, Keltner retreat) on the 1H chart.
▼ ZSCORE Extreme High Exit indicates price is overextended and due for a mean reversion.
▼ Bearish candlestick pattern (Spinning Top) confirms loss of bullish momentum.
▼ Higher timeframe trend (8H, 12H, 1D) is bearish, providing a longer-term backdrop for downside.

Risk Factors

▲ All intraday timeframes (15m-4H) are bullish – the pullback could be shallow and short-lived.
▲ The 1H trend is still bullish, so the sell signal is counter-trend and may be quickly reversed.
▲ If price breaks above the 0.70431 resistance, the bearish setup is invalidated.
▲ Momentum could fade if the 1H trend score weakens or if the 4H trend flips bullish, reducing the probability of a sustained move down.