EUR/USD – 4H – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-11-04 14:00 UTC 10 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −0.23 %

Entry

1.12353

Target

1.11044 +1.17 %

closes in profit

Stop

1.12608 −0.23 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 2 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 575 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 575 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: EMA 200 Retreat Down, HMA Retreat Down, STOCH KD Cross Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

35.3 % ↓ −25.7 vs previous candle

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 0 % (0.00) ▼ Bearish 100 % (16.34)

model score 2.7 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 4 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.2 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 15.3 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 704 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for EUR/USD

Full calendar

07:00TodayEURFactory Orders y/y●●○Forecast 6.2%Previous 2.7%in 2h
07:00TodayEURFactory Orders m/m●●○Forecast -4.3%Previous -10.6%in 2h
13:30TodayUSDNonfarm Productivity q/q●●○Forecast 1.9%Previous 1.4%in 8h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	CCI OB Exit	indicator	1.90
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	1.86
▼	EMA 200 Retreat Down	indicator	1.63
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.44
▼	STOCH KD Cross Down	indicator	1.29
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.19
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.18
▼	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.17
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	0.91

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

12H

UPTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bearish indicators fired simultaneously on the 4H chart, signaling strong selling pressure.
Short-term timeframes (15m-1h) are bearish, while higher timeframes (2h-12h) are still bullish, creating a mixed outlook.
Watch the nearest support at 1.11044; a break below could accelerate downside, while resistance at 1.12608 caps upside.
The daily trend is solidly bearish, supporting the sell signal despite the bullish higher timeframes.

The EUR/USD 4H chart has triggered a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, CCI OB Exit, STOCH KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, EMA 200 Retreat Down, ER Level Cross Down, ERI BEAR Zero Cross Down, and HMA Retreat Down. This confluence suggests that the recent upward momentum is fading and that selling pressure is building. The alignment of multiple oscillators exiting overbought territory and trend-following indicators turning lower points to a potential downward correction or reversal.

Across timeframes, the picture is mixed but leans bearish in the short term. The 15m, 30m, and 1h charts all show bearish trends forming, while the 2h, 4h, 8h, and 12h charts remain bullish. However, the daily chart shows a solid bearish trend, which adds weight to the sell signal. The nearest resistance at 1.12608 and support at 1.11044 are key levels to watch. A break below support could confirm the bearish move, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the signal.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of eight bearish indicators on the 4H chart, including multiple overbought exits and trend-following signals.
▼ Bearish trend formation on 15m, 30m, and 1h timeframes aligns with the short-term sell bias.
▼ Daily chart shows a solid bearish trend, providing a longer-term backdrop for the sell signal.
▼ The signal probability of 73% indicates a high-confidence setup.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2h, 4h, 8h, 12h) are still bullish, which could limit downside or lead to a reversal.
▲ If price reclaims the nearest resistance at 1.12608, the bearish signal would be invalidated.
▲ Momentum may be fading if the indicators were overextended; watch for a bounce off support at 1.11044.
▲ The mixed trend alignment across timeframes reduces the overall conviction of the move.