GBP/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 1× UPDATED

2026-11-04 14:00 UTC 10 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.05 %

Entry

213.231

Target

209.530 +1.74 %

closes in profit

Stop

216.496 −1.53 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 2 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 575 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 575 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: HMA Break Down, ZSCORE Extreme High Exit, SMI Signal Cross Down +4 more

Trend at entry: in 2 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↑ +24.0 vs previous candle

STRONG ⚡ Confluence +1% Swing

▲ Bullish 25 % (6.40) ▼ Bearish 75 % (19.37)

model score 75.2 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 3 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 6 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 11.5 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 14.6 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 616 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for GBP/JPY

Full calendar

12:00TodayGBPBoE MPC Vote Unchanged●●○Previous 6in 7h
12:00TodayGBPBoE MPC Vote Hike●●○Previous 3in 7h
12:00TodayGBPBoE MPC Vote Cut●●○Previous 0in 7h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	WILLR OB Exit	indicator	2.49
▲	RSI OB Exit	indicator	2.33
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	1.90
▼	ZSCORE Extreme High Exit	indicator	1.84
▼	SMI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.82
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.47
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.36
▼	KELTNER UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.30
▼	ACCBANDS UPPER Upper Retreat	indicator	1.29

Trend Context

15M

DOWNTrend forming

30M

DOWNTrend forming

UPSolid trend

UPTrend forming

12H

UPChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple oscillators (RSI, STOCHF, WILLR, KDJ, SMI) have exited overbought and crossed down, confirming bearish momentum on the 4H.
The HMA Break Down and upper-band retreats on ACCBANDS and KELTNER add trend-following confirmation to the pullback.
The broader trend is still bullish on higher timeframes, so this signal is likely a counter-trend correction within an uptrend.
Watch the nearest support at 209.53000; a break below it could open the door for a deeper decline.

The 4H chart for GBP/JPY has fired a cluster of bearish signals, including RSI OB Exit, STOCHF KD Cross Down, WILLR OB Exit, KDJ Cross Down, SMI Signal Cross Down, HMA Break Down, and upper-band retreats on ACCBANDS and KELTNER. This confluence suggests momentum is turning lower from overbought conditions, with multiple oscillators aligning to confirm a short-term pullback. The HMA Break Down adds a trend-following element, indicating that the immediate price structure is breaking lower.

However, the broader trend remains bullish across most higher timeframes, from 1H through 1D, with solid trends on the 1H and 2H. The 15M and 30M are also bearish but only trend forming, so the bearish signal is primarily a counter-trend move within a larger uptrend. The nearest support at 209.53000 is the key level to watch; a break below it would strengthen the bearish case, while a bounce could see the pair resume the broader uptrend. Given the moderate strength and the conflicting higher timeframe bias, this is likely a corrective move rather than a reversal.

Catalysts

▼ Strong confluence of multiple momentum oscillators all turning down from overbought levels on the 4H.
▼ HMA Break Down aligns with the bearish momentum, suggesting the immediate trend is shifting lower.
▼ Upper band retreats on ACCBANDS and KELTNER indicate price is pulling back from stretched levels, often a precursor to continued downside.
▼ Short-term timeframes (15M and 30M) are also bearish, supporting the immediate direction of the signal.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (1H, 2H, 4H, 8H) remain bullish, so the bearish move could be shallow and quickly reversed.
▲ A bullish trend on the daily and 12H timeframes suggests buyers may step in at support, invalidating the sell signal.
▲ If price holds above the nearest support at 209.53000 and forms a higher low, the bearish setup would be negated.
▲ Momentum could fade if the signal strength remains moderate and no follow-through occurs; watch for a reclaim of recent highs.