NZD/USD – 4H – BUY

BUY 2× UPDATED

2026-11-04 10:00 UTC 14 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.16 %

Entry

0.56394

Target

0.56516 +0.22 %

closes in profit

Stop

0.55706 −1.22 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 3 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 575 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 575 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.42 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.31 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.31 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KAMA Break Up, MIDPRICE Break Up, MIDPOINT Break Up +17 more

Trend at entry: in 4 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

59.3 % ↑ +24.0 vs previous candle

STRONG Swing

▲ Bullish 87 % (25.18) ▼ Bearish 13 % (3.63)

model score 87.4 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 4 candles

⚠ Opened against the trend in 4 of 8 timeframes. Target hit 13.2 % vs 18.2 % on average · stopped out 15.3 % vs 12.2 % (forex, 704 closed runs). Not a reason to act – a reason to watch.

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Signal evolution

Events for NZD/USD

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDUnit Labor Costs q/q●●○Forecast 0.5%Previous 1.2%in 8h
13:30TodayUSDNonfarm Productivity q/q●●○Forecast 1.9%Previous 1.4%in 8h
13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 8h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 1× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 1× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (4 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC, updated 2× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	KAMA Break Up	indicator	2.81
▲	MIDPRICE Break Up	indicator	2.57
▲	MIDPOINT Break Up	indicator	2.56
▲	MA Break Up	indicator	2.40
▲	HT TRENDLINE Break Up	indicator	2.28
▲	MAMA PRICE Break Up	indicator	2.25
▲	DEMA Break Up	indicator	2.09
▲	EMA Break Up	indicator	2.05
▲	ALMA Break Up	indicator	1.95
▲	HMA Break Up	indicator	1.78
▲	KST Signal Cross Up	indicator	1.76
▲	AROON Cross Up	indicator	1.67
▲	AROONOSC Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.67
▲	AROON Strong Uptrend	indicator	1.61
▲	SAR Flip Bullish	indicator	1.59
▲	ERI BEAR Zero Cross Up	indicator	1.46
▲	MAMA Cross Up	indicator	1.38
▲	Fibonacci Break UpTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.32
▼	KDJ OB Entry	indicator	1.23
▲	VORTEX Cross Up	indicator	1.21
▲	Spinning Top Bullish	candlestick	0.60

Trend Context

15M

UPSolid trend

30M

UPTrend forming

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

A powerful 4H bullish signal has fired, with multiple moving average breakouts and an Aroon cross, but it is counter to the higher-timeframe downtrend.
The nearest resistance at 0.56516 is the critical barrier; a break above it would confirm the 4H bullish reversal.
Support at 0.55706 is the key invalidation level; losing it would negate the bullish signal.
Traders should watch for higher-timeframe confirmation, as the 12H and 1D trends remain bearish.

A dense cluster of bullish signals has fired on the NZD/USD 4H chart, led by an Aroon Cross Up and a strong Aroon uptrend, alongside breakouts above the DEMA, EMA, KAMA, and a major trendline. This confluence suggests that buying momentum has taken control of the medium-term price action, with the 4H timeframe now flipping from a bearish to a bullish posture. The simultaneous break of multiple moving averages and the trendline indicates a decisive shift in supply-demand dynamics, and the high probability score (96%) reflects the strength of this alignment.

However, the higher timeframes remain bearish, with the 8H, 12H, and 1D charts still in solid downtrends. This creates a classic conflict: the 4H breakout is happening against the larger trend, which could limit upside potential or lead to a false breakout. The immediate resistance at 0.56516 is the key hurdle to watch; a sustained move above it would signal that the 4H bullish momentum is strong enough to challenge the higher-timeframe downtrend. Conversely, a failure to hold above the nearest support at 0.55706 would invalidate the bullish setup and likely resume the broader bearish trend.

Catalysts

▲ Strong confluence of signals: Aroon Cross Up, DEMA/EMA/KAMA breakouts, and a trendline break all align on the 4H chart.
▲ The 4H timeframe is transitioning from bearish to bullish, and the high probability score (96%) reflects the strength of the momentum shift.
▲ The breakout occurred at a time when lower timeframes (15m to 2H) are already bullish, supporting the 4H move.
▲ The cluster of signals from multiple groups (indicator, fibonacci, candlestick) adds to the reliability of the setup.

Risk Factors

▼ The higher timeframes (8H, 12H, 1D) are still in solid downtrends, which could cap upside or lead to a false breakout.
▼ The 4H trend is still forming (2/5 strength), meaning the bullish momentum may not be fully established.
▼ Resistance at 0.56516 is a nearby barrier that could stall the advance; a rejection there would signal weakness.
▼ If price falls below support at 0.55706, the bullish signal is invalidated and the broader downtrend likely resumes.