USD/JPY – 1H – SELL

SELL 4× UPDATED

2026-11-04 23:00 UTC 4 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now +0.31 %

Entry

158.354

Target

157.397 +0.60 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.768 −0.26 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 15 candles (15 hours), at the market price · now candle 4 of 15

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 51 of 100 forex 1h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 1,527 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 1,527 closed forex 1h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

16 % at target avg +0.36 % 35 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.15 % 37 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.17 % 12 % at stop avg −0.38 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: MACD Signal Cross Down, MIDPOINT Retreat Down, MOM Zero Cross Down +13 more

Trend at entry: in 7 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 34,623 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

61.0 % ↑ +1.7 vs previous candle

VERY STRONG Intraday

▲ Bullish 3 % (0.92) ▼ Bearish 97 % (30.02)

model score 97.0 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (1318 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDUnit Labor Costs q/q●●○Forecast 0.5%Previous 1.2%in 9h
13:30TodayUSDNonfarm Productivity q/q●●○Forecast 1.9%Previous 1.4%in 9h
13:30TodayUSDContinuing Jobless Claims●●○in 9h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 50% — below this the other side leads

Weakening. Conviction is lower than at entry — worth watching, no action implied.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (5 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC, updated 4× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	MACD Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.74
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.69
▼	MOM Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.66
▼	ROC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.66
▼	ROCR Cross Down	indicator	1.66
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	1.63
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.57
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.56
▼	HMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.51
▼	TSI Signal Cross Down	indicator	1.48
▼	HT PHASOR Inphase Cross Down	indicator	1.27
▼	AROON Cross Down	indicator	1.22
▼	AROONOSC Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.22
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.12
▼	AO Saucer Bearish	indicator	1.09
▼	STC Level Cross Down	indicator	1.09

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNChoppy / sideways

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple momentum indicators (AROON, BOP, MACD, MOM, ROC, ROCR, DEMA) all point lower, creating strong bearish confluence on the 1H chart.
Bearish trend across most timeframes (15m to 1d) supports the sell signal, but the 4H remains bullish, adding a conflicting layer.
Choppy/sideways conditions with low trend scores (1/5) suggest the move may lack strong directional momentum; watch for range-bound behavior.
Key levels: support at 157.39700 and resistance at 158.76800; a break of support could accelerate downside, while a move above resistance would negate the signal.

The USD/JPY 1H signal has fired a dense cluster of bearish momentum indicators, including an AROON Cross Down, AROONOSC Zero Cross Down, BOP Zero Cross Down, MACD Signal Cross Down, MOM Zero Cross Down, ROC Zero Cross Down, ROCR Cross Down, and DEMA Retreat Down, among others. This confluence suggests that selling pressure is broad-based across momentum, trend, and volatility measures, pointing to a strong short-term bearish bias. The alignment across the 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 8h, 12h, and 1d timeframes, all bearish, reinforces the signal's validity, though the choppy/sideways nature and low trend score (1/5) indicate that the move may be more of a momentum shift than a strong directional trend. The 4h timeframe is still bullish, which introduces a potential conflict and suggests the bearish move could be corrective.

Key levels to watch are the nearest resistance at 158.76800 and the nearest support at 157.39700. A break below support would confirm continued downside, while a reclaim of resistance would invalidate the bearish setup. Given the very strong signal strength and the broad indicator alignment, the path of least resistance is likely lower, but traders should be cautious of the choppy conditions and the bullish 4h trend, which could limit downside follow-through.

Catalysts

▼ Broad-based momentum crossover signals (AROON, MACD, MOM, ROC, ROCR) all confirm bearish momentum shift.
▼ Bearish alignment across 7 of 8 timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 8h, 12h, 1d) reinforces the lower-timeframe signal.
▼ Very strong signal strength (probability 100%) suggests high conviction among the indicator cluster.
▼ Price is below the nearest resistance at 158.76800, leaving room to move toward support.

Risk Factors

▲ The 4H timeframe is bullish, which could mean the bearish move is only a correction within a larger uptrend.
▲ Choppy/sideways conditions with low trend scores (1/5) indicate weak trend strength; momentum could fade quickly.
▲ If price breaks above the nearest resistance at 158.76800, the bearish signal would be invalidated.
▲ The high number of indicators may lead to overextension; watch for a bounce off support at 157.39700.