AVAX/USDT – 4H – SELL

SELL With the trend 1× UPDATED

2026-11-09 04:00 UTC 18 hours ago

The plan for this signal Running · now −10.95 %

Entry

7.8390

Target

7.7586 +1.03 %

closes in profit

Stop

9.1600 −16.85 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price · now candle 4 of 12

Target and stop are recalculated on every candle and can move.

The plan applies until the end. Warning signs along the way are notes, not an exit signal – exiting at warning signs has not paid off on average in our measurements.

So far 54 of 100 crypto 4h signals ended in profit · on average −0.01 % per trade 2,155 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 2,155 closed crypto 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

32 % at target avg +2.60 % 22 % holding time ended, in profit avg +2.76 % 24 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −2.71 % 21 % at stop avg −3.66 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout, ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Breakout, MIDPRICE Retreat Down +9 more

Trend at entry: in 8 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 37,587 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

38.0 % ↓ −19.9 vs previous candle

WEAK Swing

▲ Bullish 27 % (4.81) ▼ Bearish 73 % (12.98)

model score 12.1 – ranks this signal within its class, it is not a probability; the large figure is the measured frequency (5091 closed runs, 2026-09-18)

Conviction · 5 candles

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Signal evolution

Events for AVAX/USDT

Full calendar

13:30TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 11h
13:30TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 11h
13:30TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 11h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 3× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 3× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (9 Nov 2026, 08:02 UTC, updated 1× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.
This signal is still open and is being tracked candle by candle on this page until it closes.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▼	KELTNER LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.69
▼	ACCBANDS LOWER Lower Breakout	indicator	2.66
▼	MIDPRICE Retreat Down	indicator	2.34
▼	BBANDS LOWER Break Down	indicator	2.19
▼	DEMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.89
▼	STOCHF KD Cross Down	indicator	1.65
▼	ALMA Retreat Down	indicator	1.62
▼	MIDPOINT Retreat Down	indicator	1.57
▼	BOP Zero Cross Down	indicator	1.37
▲	WILLR OS Entry	indicator	1.37
▼	KDJ Cross Down	indicator	1.24
▼	Bearish Engulfing	candlestick	0.86
▼	Belt Hold Bearish	candlestick	0.81

Trend Context

15M

DOWNSolid trend

30M

DOWNTrend forming

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNSolid trend

DOWNTrend forming

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Multiple bearish indicators (BOP, STOCHF, WILLR, BBANDS, KDJ) align on the 4H chart, indicating strong selling pressure.
All timeframes show bearish trends, with solid trends on 15m, 1h, 2h, and 12h, supporting the downside move.
Resistance at 9.16000 is the key level to watch; a rejection there confirms bearish momentum, while a break above would negate the signal.
With no defined support, the path of least resistance is lower, but risk management is essential due to open downside.

The 4H SELL signal on AVA/XUSDT is backed by a dense cluster of bearish indicators, including a BOP Zero Cross Down, STOCHF KD Cross Down, WILLR OS Entry, and BBANDS Lower Break Down, alongside multiple retreat signals (DEMA, MIDPOINT, MIDPRICE) and a KDJ Cross Down. This confluence indicates strong selling pressure across momentum and volatility measures, with the price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential acceleration of the downtrend. The bearish alignment across all timeframes, from 15m to 1D, reinforces the signal's strength, with solid trends on 15m, 1h, 2h, and 12h charts, and trend-forming on others, indicating a broad-based bearish sentiment.

Key levels to monitor include the nearest resistance at 9.16000, which now acts as a critical pivot; a retest of this level could offer a selling opportunity if rejected, while a break above would invalidate the bearish setup. With nearest support not defined, the downside is open, but traders should watch for potential support zones from prior price action. The extremely high probability (95%) and very strong strength suggest a high-conviction move, yet the lack of a defined support level means risk management is crucial. Overall, the signal points to continued downside, but confirmation of a break below recent lows would strengthen the bearish case.

Catalysts

▼ Confluence of multiple bearish signals across momentum, volatility, and trend-following indicators.
▼ Consistent bearish trends across all major timeframes, with solid trend scores on several.
▼ Break below the lower Bollinger Band signals potential for continued downside volatility.
▼ High probability (95%) and very strong strength indicate high conviction in the bearish move.

Risk Factors

▲ A break above the 9.16000 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
▲ Overbought/oversold conditions (WILLR OS Entry) may lead to a technical bounce, slowing the downtrend.
▲ Lack of a defined support level means the downside could be sharp, but also increases the risk of a sudden reversal if buyers step in.
▲ Trend scores on several timeframes are only 'trend forming' (2/5), suggesting the bearish trend is not yet fully established on those frames.