AUD/JPY faces downward pressure at 109.30 as record Japanese intervention and expectations of a December BoJ rate hike strengthen the yen, keeping the pair below critical technical resistance levels.
The pair trades around 109.30 after Japan disclosed record intervention of 7.98 trillion JPY on July 30 and BoJ meeting minutes signal a likely December rate hike, both directly boosting the quote currency JPY against AUD. Technicals reinforce the bearish bias with price below the 20-day and 100-day SMAs and RSI at 41. Support sits at 108.85, with 110.70-110.75 the key resistance to reclaim.
Record official intervention of 7.98 trillion JPY on July 30 and the October 29-30 BoJ meeting summary signaling a near-term rate hike both support the yen directly. Rabobank calls the JPY the second best performing G10 currency and remains cautiously optimistic on its medium-term outlook, though gains depend on upcoming GDP and CPI data.
Rabobank analysts note the market's reluctance to push USD/JPY above the 158.70 area (200-day SMA) and forecast the pair edging lower to 155.00 on a 3-month view, citing strong September wage data supporting BoJ tightening and possible JPY repatriation into higher JGB yields. Intervention support and BoJ hike odds weigh on the pair.
The AUD/JPY pair trades near 109.30 as the Japanese Yen strengthens following the disclosure of a record 7.98 trillion JPY currency intervention on July 30. Bolstered by Bank of Japan signals for a potential December rate hike, the pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages with immediate support identified at 108.85.
The yen is strengthening after Japan disclosed record currency interventions (7.98 trillion JPY on July 30) and the Bank of Japan's meeting summary signaled a probable December rate hike, pushing the pair below 109.50.
Immediate support is the lower Bollinger Band at 108.85, then the November 6 low of 108.24 and the February 13 low of 107.70. Resistance starts at 110.00, with 110.70-110.75 the key zone to reverse the bearish bias.
Record official currency interventions (7.98 trillion JPY on July 30) and growing expectations of a December Bank of Japan rate hike based on the October 29-30 meeting summary and strong September wage data.
Rabobank expects USD/JPY to edge lower to the 155.00 area over three months, noting resistance around 158.70 at the 200-day moving average and a supportive backdrop for the yen from BoJ tightening hopes.