News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

EUR/USD Trades Near 1.1060 as Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 14.5%

EUR/USD remains capped below the 100-day SMA at 1.1400 as hawkish Fed rhetoric and a 14.5% probability of a December rate hike keep the US Dollar supported against the Euro.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/USD ↓ 4/10 (65% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Fed officials warn US inflation is stubbornly elevated, with markets pricing a 14.5% chance of a 50-bp December hike, keeping the Dollar supported, while NBC analysts see ECB hikes offering only limited Euro support and forecast 0.65 at year-end. Technically the pair sits below the 100-day SMA at 1.1400 with RSI at 35.19, favoring a test of 1.1000 support.

Catalysts

▼ Traders price a 14.5% probability of a 50-bp Fed hike in December, up from 0% last week
▼ Fed's Williams speech scores 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker, above the 6.1 historical average

Risk Factors

▲ ECB still seen delivering a final deposit rate hike next month, which could support the Euro
▲ RSI at 35.19 is near oversold, limiting further bearish momentum

USD

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Fed officials warn inflation remains stubbornly elevated and some are open to a 50-bp hike, pushing the market-implied probability of a large December hike to 14.5% from 0%. Williams' hawkish speech (7/10 Speechtracker) and the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 147.47 confirm firmly hawkish Fed communication, which underpins the Dollar.

Catalysts

▲ CME FedWatch shows 14.5% probability of a large December hike, up from 0% last week
▲ Williams' 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score above the 6.1 historical average

Risk Factors

▼ FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 0.08 points, a marginal softening in Fed tone
▼ Fed officials stressed policy would stay restrictive but not aggressively deflationary

EUR

Bearish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 EU ✨ Inferred

ECB policymaker Lane ties future rate decisions to how fuel-cost inflation spreads to wages, and economists see only one final hike next month, while NBC argues further ECB tightening may offer limited currency support given uneven Eurozone growth. The Euro remains caught between elevated inflation and a weak growth outlook.

Catalysts

▼ ECB set for a final deposit rate hike next month per Reuters economists poll
▼ NBC analysis: rate increases offer only limited support if growth expectations weaken

Risk Factors

▲ More than a third of economists expect an additional ECB hike in early 2027 as inflation runs at double the 2% target
▲ NBC forecasts a gradual Euro recovery above 0.70 in 2025

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Traders now price a 14.5% probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, up from 0% last week.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index remains in hawkish territory at 147.47, despite a marginal 0.08 point decline.
EUR/USD technicals show the pair trading below the 100-day SMA at 1.1400, with immediate support at the 1.1000 level.
NBC analysts maintain a year-end EUR/USD forecast of 0.65, citing limited support from ECB rate hikes amid uneven growth.

📝 Executive Summary

The EUR/USD pair faces persistent downside pressure as markets increase the probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December to 14.5%. While the Euro remains constrained by uneven growth, technical indicators show the pair struggling below the 100-day SMA at 1.1400, with the RSI at 35.19 suggesting continued bearish momentum.

❓ FAQ

EUR/USD · Why is EUR/USD expected to stay under pressure?

Fed officials flagged persistent US inflation and markets now price a 14.5% chance of a large December rate hike, which supports the Dollar, while the ECB's stance is cautious and analysts see ECB hikes offering only limited Euro support given uneven Eurozone growth.

EUR/USD · What are the key technical levels to watch?

Resistance lies at 1.1100, then the Bollinger mid-line near 1.1175 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1400. Support is at the 1.1000 round figure, with a break opening the way to 1.0951 and then 1.0733.

USD · Why is the Dollar being supported?

Fed officials warned US inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with some open to a 50-basis-point hike, and traders now price a 14.5% chance of such a move at the December meeting, up from 0% a week earlier.

EUR · Why isn't ECB rate hikes lifting the Euro?

Because the Eurozone growth outlook is uneven, analysts warn further ECB rate increases could offer only limited currency support if accompanied by weaker growth expectations.

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