News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

EUR/JPY Trades at 176.85 as Bearish Bias Persists Below 100-Day SMA

EUR/JPY faces technical pressure below the 100-day SMA at 181.25, with Japanese intervention risks and record retail JGB demand of JPY 2,026bn weighing on the pair's medium-term outlook.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 0 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 1 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/JPY ↓ 4/10 (55% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

EUR/JPY

Bearish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

EUR/JPY trades around 176.85 but holds below the 100-day SMA at 181.25 with RSI at 46, keeping a bearish technical bias. Japanese FX intervention warnings from Finance Minister Katayama cap the pair's upside, while MUFG sees medium-term risks skewed to yen strength on improving BoJ credibility and record retail JGB demand of JPY 2,026bn in November.

Catalysts

▼ Finance Minister Katayama's intervention warning on Friday over one-sided, swift FX moves
▼ Record monthly retail JGB issuance of JPY 2,026bn for 3-, 5- and 10-year paper in November, signalling yen-supportive flows

Risk Factors

▲ BoJ's Asada tempers rate-hike expectations, citing weak consumption, which limits yen-bullish narratives
▲ ECB is still expected to deliver a final deposit rate hike next month, which could support the euro side of the cross

USD/JPY

Neutral 🤖 50%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

BoJ board member Asada's cautiously hawkish speech (4.4/10 on FXS Speechtracker) suggests limited near-term upside in rate expectations but keeps gradual tightening on the table, tempering aggressive yen-bullish narratives while capping extreme dollar strength. The net effect for Dollar/Yen is balanced in the near term.

Catalysts

• Asada's comments that rates may need to rise slowly at some stage and that the nominal neutral rate may sit somewhat above the current policy rate

Risk Factors

• Asada stressed hikes could push down underlying inflation given weak consumption, arguing against rushing tightening
• Refusal to discuss a desirable FX level keeps policy signalling vague

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

EUR/JPY remains bearish while trading below the 100-day SMA of 181.25, with an RSI of 46 indicating subdued negative momentum.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned on Friday that authorities are monitoring one-sided, swift foreign exchange shifts.
Retail demand for JGBs reached a record JPY 2,026bn in November for 3-, 5- and 10-year paper, signaling potential yen-supportive flows.
Immediate support for EUR/JPY is identified at the November 6 low of 176.16, with resistance at 178.25.

📝 Executive Summary

The EUR/JPY pair trades at 176.85, maintaining a bearish technical bias as it remains capped below the 100-day SMA of 181.25. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has signaled potential intervention against swift currency moves, while record retail JGB demand of JPY 2,026bn in November supports a medium-term outlook for yen strength.

❓ FAQ

EUR/JPY · Why could EUR/JPY fall from here?

The pair is trading below the 100-day moving average at 181.25 with an RSI of 46, and Japanese officials have signalled they may act against one-sided yen weakness, which limits the pair's upside. A break below the November 6 low of 176.16 and the 175.35 Bollinger lower band could open the way to 172.27.

EUR/JPY · What could push EUR/JPY higher instead?

A decisive break above the 180.00 psychological level and then the 100-day SMA at 181.25 would challenge the bearish view, especially as most economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to deliver a final deposit rate hike next month, supporting the euro.

USD/JPY · What did the BoJ speech mean for Dollar/Yen?

BoJ member Asada was slightly more hawkish than past communication but cautious, keeping both future hikes and cuts possible. This suggests limited near-term movement in rate expectations for Dollar/Yen, with a medium-term bias toward gradual yen-supportive normalisation.

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