News report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 United States

Gold Struggles Below $3,900 as Fed Hike Bets Drive Dollar to 19-Month High

Gold faces persistent bearish pressure as the US Dollar Index hits a 19-month high of 103.23, with investors awaiting US PPI data at 13:30 GMT to gauge the next move in Fed policy.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

4 assets impacted (Commodities, Forex, Bonds). Net bias: 3 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: XAU ↓ 6/10 (85% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (4)

XAU

Bearish 🤖 85%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Gold fell to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2025, and is down more than 4% this week as hawkish Fed remarks (Waller musing over a 50bp December hike) lifted the dollar and yields. A stronger dollar and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, and price sits below the 21-, 50- and 100-day SMAs with a break below $3,800 opening deeper losses. The upcoming US PPI release at 13:30 GMT could swing the near-term direction either way.

Catalysts

▼ US PPI data at 13:30 GMT today
▼ Hawkish Fed comments from Logan, Hammack and Daly this week

Risk Factors

▲ Thursday's low of $3,852 and the $3,800 psychological level hold as support
▲ Oversold conditions could trigger a rebound toward $3,900 and $4,000 resistance

USD

Bullish 🤖 80%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

The dollar is in what ING calls a powerful macro-driven rally, with the DXY around 103.23 near a 19-month high and on track for a third straight weekly gain. Short-dated US yields are close to 40bp higher since Tuesday after Waller floated a 50bp December hike, and markets now price back-to-back December and January hikes totalling 85bp of tightening. Today's PPI data at 13:30 GMT is the next driver.

Catalysts

▲ US PPI release at 13:30 GMT today
▲ Waller's comments on a possible 50bp December hike

Risk Factors

▼ Softer-than-expected PPI could unwind some hawkish repricing
▼ CPI beat was already priced in after this week's move

US10Y

Bullish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Hawkish Fed rhetoric has driven short-dated US yields close to 40bp higher since Tuesday morning, with markets extending the expected Fed adjustment to a full 85bp of tightening. Yields rising on renewed hike expectations supports the direction of the benchmark yield higher into the PPI release, though the article cites short-dated tenors rather than the 10-year specifically.

Catalysts

▲ US PPI data at 13:30 GMT today
▲ Short-dated yields up close to 40bp since Tuesday on Waller's 50bp hike comments

Risk Factors

▼ Softer PPI print could reverse the yield rise
▼ Much of the hawkish repricing may already be done

USOIL

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

WTI jumped more than 3% on Thursday after President Trump said Washington did not need a deal with Iran to end the war, with prospects for a deal to end the US-Iran conflict remaining slim. Continued conflict supports supply-risk premiums and could keep inflation elevated, though the move has already occurred and attention shifts to PPI data.

Catalysts

▲ Trump's statement that Washington does not need a deal with Iran
▲ Slim prospects for a deal to end the US-Iran war

Risk Factors

▼ A diplomatic breakthrough with Iran could deflate the supply-risk premium
▼ The 3% Thursday jump has already been priced

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Gold fell to a low of $3,852 on Thursday, marking its weakest level since October 2025.
Short-dated US yields have risen nearly 40bp since Tuesday following Fed official Christopher Waller's 50bp hike suggestion.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near a 19-month high of 103.23, on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.
WTI crude oil jumped more than 3% on Thursday after President Trump signaled no deal with Iran is expected to end the conflict.
Markets are currently pricing in 85bp of total Fed tightening, with expectations for back-to-back hikes in December and January.

📝 Executive Summary

Gold is down over 4% this week, trading at $3,889 as hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric fuels a surge in the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Markets are now pricing in 85bp of total tightening, including potential back-to-back hikes in December and January, following comments from officials including Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan.

❓ FAQ

XAU · Why is gold falling this week?

Hawkish comments from several Fed officials have driven bets on further rate hikes, lifting the US dollar and Treasury yields, which make gold more expensive for other-currency buyers and raise the cost of holding it. Gold is down more than 4% this week and hit $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest since October 2025.

XAU · What should gold traders watch next?

US PPI data at 13:30 GMT today. Key levels are $3,852 and $3,800 on the downside, and $3,900 and $4,000 on the upside, with the 21-day SMA at $4,031 capping a stronger recovery.

USD · Why is the dollar so strong right now?

Fed officials, including Waller's hint at a 50bp December hike, Logan's call for at least two more 25bp increases and Hammack's and Daly's hawkish remarks, have led markets to price back-to-back December and January hikes and around 85bp of total tightening, pushing the DXY near a 19-month high at 103.23.

US10Y · Why are Treasury yields rising?

Hawkish comments from Fed officials have led markets to price back-to-back December and January rate hikes and roughly 85bp of total tightening, sending short-dated US yields close to 40bp higher since Tuesday morning.

USOIL · Why did oil prices jump?

WTI crude rose more than 3% on Thursday after President Trump said Washington did not need a deal with Iran to end the war, keeping alive concerns about supply disruption from the conflict.

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