News report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 United States

Silver Price Trades Near $50.50 as Markets Price 85.5% Fed Hike Odds

Silver holds near $50.50 as investors weigh strong inflation data and an 85.5% chance of a December Fed rate hike ahead of Friday's US PPI report.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Bonds, Forex, Commodities). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 1 Neutral. Strongest signal: US10Y ↑ 4/10 (70% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

US10Y

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Stronger-than-expected US CPI released earlier this week has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, with traders pricing 85.5% odds of a hike and 14.5% of a half-point move. This hawkish repricing is behind the rising Treasury yields the article describes, pushing the 10-year yield higher. Friday's PPI, expected at 6.6% YoY headline, could extend the move if hot.

Catalysts

▲ Hot CPI data earlier this week reinforced December rate hike expectations
▲ 85.5% odds of a Fed hike at the December 8-9 meeting per CME FedWatch

Risk Factors

▼ A softer-than-expected PPI on Friday could reverse the rise in yields

USD

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Hot CPI data and a near-85.5% market-implied probability of a December 8-9 Fed rate hike point to higher US rates, a classic supportive backdrop for the Dollar. Waller's openness to a 50-basis-point hike reinforces the hawkish tilt. Friday's PPI reading is the next test of this view.

Catalysts

▲ 85.5% priced odds of a Fed rate hike on December 8-9
▲ Waller said a 50-bp hike should be considered if core inflation remains elevated

Risk Factors

▼ A PPI print at or below the 6.6%/5.0% forecasts could dial back hike expectations

XAG

Neutral 🤖 50%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Silver is trading around $50.50 per troy ounce in Asian hours on Friday, recovering from modest losses, but faces headwinds from rising Treasury yields and nearly 85.5% priced-in odds of a Fed rate hike on December 8-9. A hawkish Fed and strong Dollar argue against further gains, while safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand support the price. The mix of upward momentum and rate-hike pressure leaves the near-term direction balanced.

Catalysts

• Friday's US PPI report, with headline PPI expected at 6.6% YoY and core at 5.0% YoY for October
• CME FedWatch shows 85.5% odds of a Fed rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting

Risk Factors

• Rising 10-year US Treasury yields weigh on a yieldless asset like silver
• Further upside surprise in PPI could cement a December hike, pressuring silver

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Traders are pricing in an 85.5% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting.
Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to show headline inflation at 6.6% YoY and core inflation at 5.0% YoY for October.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested a 50-basis-point rate hike should be considered if core inflation remains elevated.

📝 Executive Summary

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $50.50 per troy ounce on Friday, recovering from recent losses despite mounting pressure from rising US Treasury yields. Markets are currently pricing in an 85.5% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting, following hawkish comments from Governor Christopher Waller regarding core inflation.

❓ FAQ

US10Y · What is driving US Treasury yields higher?

Stronger-than-expected CPI inflation data and Fed Governor Waller's comment that a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core inflation stays elevated have lifted expectations of a December rate hike, pushing yields up.

USD · How do Fed rate hike expectations affect the Dollar?

Traders price an 85.5% chance of a Fed hike at the December 8-9 meeting after strong CPI data, and higher expected rates support the US Dollar.

XAG · Why is silver near $50.50 despite rate hike expectations?

Silver gained ground on Friday in Asian hours after modest losses the previous day, but analysts flag rising Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Fed rate hike in December as challenges for the price.

XAG · What upcoming event could move silver?

Friday's US Producer Price Index report, with headline PPI forecast at 6.6% YoY and core at 5.0% YoY for October, will offer further clues on inflation and the Fed's December decision.

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