News report 🌐 Macro 🌍 GLOBAL

US 2Y Yield Tops 4.8% as Fed Officials Signal Further Rate Hikes

Rising US front-end yields are fueling a broad dollar rally, pushing EUR/USD below 1.11 and testing the 160-level in USD/JPY as markets reprice the path for Fed rate hikes.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

5 assets impacted (Forex, Bonds, Commodities). Net bias: 3 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USD ↑ 6/10 (70% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (5)

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

October PPI is released today after recent upside surprises, and three Fed speakers (Hammack, Williams, Daly) signalled policy needs to be more restrictive, with Waller even floating a 50bp hike in December. The 2Y yield has risen almost 40bp since last Thursday, driving a broad USD rally that pushed EUR/USD below 1.11 and USD/JPY toward 160. Further hot PPI data would reinforce this hawkish repricing.

Catalysts

▲ October US PPI release today
▲ Fed's Daly speaking today

Risk Factors

▼ PPI could come in softer than expected if energy pass-through fades
▼ USD/JPY near 160 raises intervention risk not addressed in the article

US02Y

Bullish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

The 2-year yield rose past 4.8% on Thursday, up almost 40bp since last Thursday, as strong nonfarm payrolls and inflation data point to a more restrictive Fed, with Waller flagging a possible 50bp December hike. Today's PPI and Daly's remarks could push yields, especially the front end, further higher.

Catalysts

▲ October PPI release today
▲ Fed speakers Hammack, Williams and Daly signalling restrictive policy is needed

Risk Factors

▼ A softer PPI print could stall the front-end sell-off
▼ Yields have already risen sharply, raising the risk of consolidation

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair continued to drop below 1.11 as rising US front-end yields drive a broad dollar rally. Today's euro area data (Q3 employment estimate and second GDP estimate, expected to confirm 0.4% q/q) are unlikely to change the picture, while hot US PPI would add further downside pressure.

Catalysts

▼ US PPI release today
▼ Euro area Q3 employment and second GDP estimate today

Risk Factors

▲ A softer-than-expected US PPI could reverse some dollar gains
▲ Euro area GDP may surprise to the upside, supporting the euro

USD/JPY

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair is testing the 160-level again as rising US front-end yields fuel dollar strength. Japan's Q3 national accounts due Monday are expected to show only modest 0.1% q/q growth, which the article says would not change the course towards another rate hike in December or January, leaving the yield gap supportive of the pair.

Catalysts

▲ US 2-year yield past 4.8% with front-end pressure
▲ Japan Q3 GDP early Monday, consensus 0.1% q/q

Risk Factors

▼ The 160-level has been tested before and a break could attract intervention
▼ A big GDP surprise could revive rate-hike expectations and strengthen the yen

UKOIL

Bearish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Brent is set for a second continuous week of declines after dropping sharply over the past two weeks on easing geopolitical risks, though it still trades above USD95/bbl and jumped slightly on Thursday after Trump said a deal with Iran was not needed. The downtrend momentum points to further price pressure.

Catalysts

▼ Second continuous week of declines
▼ Easing geopolitical risks over the past two weeks

Risk Factors

▲ Renewed geopolitical tensions with Iran could reverse the decline
▲ Prices remain above USD95/bbl, so the drop is from elevated levels

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

The US 2-year Treasury yield rose past 4.8% on Thursday, up nearly 40bp since the previous Thursday.
Fed officials Hammack, Williams, and Daly have signaled that monetary policy needs to be more restrictive.
EUR/USD has dropped below 1.11, while USD/JPY is testing the 160-level amid a broad US dollar rally.
Brent crude futures remain above USD95/bbl despite a second consecutive week of declines.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has resigned, with CFO Colette Kress appointed as interim CEO.

📝 Executive Summary

The US 2-year Treasury yield has climbed past 4.8%, marking an increase of nearly 40bp since last Thursday. This surge follows strong nonfarm payrolls and inflation data, prompting Fed officials including Hammack, Williams, and Daly to signal that more restrictive policy is required to combat rising price pressures.

❓ FAQ

USD · Why is the dollar strengthening right now?

US inflation and jobs data have come in hot, and several Fed officials including Waller have signalled possible rate hikes, with Waller mentioning a 50bp move in December. This pushed the 2-year yield up almost 40bp since last Thursday and lifted the dollar broadly.

USD · What should I watch today?

October US PPI data, especially whether price pressures are broadening beyond energy-affected components, plus comments from the Fed's Daly.

US02Y · Why are short-term US yields rising?

Inflation and labour market data have shown signs of heating up, and Fed officials including Waller have suggested possible rate hikes, even a 50bp move in December, pushing the 2-year yield up almost 40bp since last Thursday and past 4.8%.

EUR/USD · Why has EUR/USD fallen below 1.11?

Rising US front-end yields, up almost 40bp on the 2-year since last Thursday, have driven a broad dollar rally, dragging EUR/USD lower.

EUR/USD · What euro data is due?

The first estimate of Q3 employment growth, expected at 0.1% q/q, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP, expected to confirm 0.4% q/q growth.

USD/JPY · Why is USD/JPY near 160?

The dollar is rallying on rising US front-end yields after strong US jobs and inflation data, and Japan's expected weak 0.1% q/q Q3 GDP is unlikely to alter the path toward another Bank of Japan rate hike in December or January.

UKOIL · Why has oil been falling?

Oil prices have dropped sharply over the past two weeks in part due to easing geopolitical risks, putting Brent on course for a second continuous week of declines despite still trading above USD95 per barrel.

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