USD/JPY – 4H – SELL

SELL 7× UPDATED CLOSED

2026-10-28 05:05 UTC 4 days ago

The plan for this signal Closed after the holding time · result +0.58 %

Entry

158.100

Target

156.075 +1.28 %

closes in profit

Stop

158.603 −0.32 %

closes at a loss

At the latest

after 12 candles (2 days), at the market price

So far 50 of 100 forex 4h signals ended in profit · on average ≈ 0 % per trade 541 closed signals since 6 Sep 2026 · Information, not investment advice · past results are not a reliable indicator of future results · Disclaimer

What we have measured

This is how 541 closed forex 4h signals since 6 Sep 2026 ended:

25 % at target avg +0.43 % 26 % holding time ended, in profit avg +0.30 % 32 % holding time ended, at a loss avg −0.30 % 17 % at stop avg −0.47 %

Missing the target is not the same as a loss: when the holding time ends, the trade closes at the market price – in profit or at a loss.

Real live signals, nothing selected · gross, without your broker’s fees and spreads

Why this signal

Triggered by: T3 Break Down, HMA Break Down, ADX Trend Weak +5 more

Trend at entry: in 6 of 8 timeframes in the signal direction

The engine evaluates many detectors on every candle – chart patterns, indicators, trend lines, support and resistance – and weights each one by how it has performed so far.

All triggers · Trend context · AI assessment

How we work

Every signal is tracked to the end and counted, losses included – so far 32,805 closed live signals.
Every figure on this page was fixed in advance and checked on data that was not used to develop it.
What does not hold up, we do not recommend: we tested exiting at warning signs on about 98,000 trades – on average it gains nothing, so there is no such recommendation.
More than 150 logged experiments, each with its result – including the ones that failed.
All figures are gross: without your broker’s fees, spreads and slippage.

Details for professionals

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Signal evolution

Events for USD/JPY

Full calendar

15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing Employment●●○Forecast 51.4Previous 52.7in 9h
15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing Prices Paid●●●Forecast 80.7Previous 77.9in 9h
15:00TodayUSDISM Manufacturing PMI●●●Forecast 54.7Previous 54.5in 9h

All times UTC.

Conviction, candle by candle

conviction per candle 6× below 35% 50% — below this the other side leads

Dropped below 35% 6× and recovered. A falling line is a warning, not an instruction — signals that dip and come back are normal. Watch for a line that stays down.

Signals Fired

These are the triggers as captured when the signal opened (28 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC, updated 7× since). They are not recalculated — the chart shows current candles.

	Signals Fired	Category	Weight
▲	STOCH OB Exit	indicator	2.23
▼	T3 Break Down	indicator	2.22
▼	HMA Break Down	indicator	2.03
▼	ADX Trend Weak	indicator	1.56
▼	ER Level Cross Down	indicator	1.46
▼	TTM TREND Trend Down	indicator	1.30
▼	HMA Direction Down	indicator	1.27
▼	Fibonacci Break DownTrend (24%)break + retest	fibonacci	1.04
▼	Three Outside Down	candlestick	0.73

Trend Context

15M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

30M

DOWNChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

UPTrend forming

UPChoppy / sideways

DOWNTrend forming

12H

DOWNChoppy / sideways

Analysis

🎯 Key Takeaways

Strong confluence of bearish signals on the 4H chart—momentum, moving averages, and Fibonacci—indicate a high-probability sell setup.
Most lower timeframes (15m-1h) are bearish, but trend strength is weak; expect choppy conditions.
Immediate resistance at 158.603 is a barrier; nearest support at 156.075 is the key downside target.
Mixed higher timeframes (2h/4h bullish) suggest caution—the bearish move may be corrective, not a full reversal.

The 4H USD/JPY signal is strongly bearish, with an 87% probability and very strong strength, driven by a cluster of indicators: ADX Trend Weak (weak trend), STOCH OB Exit (stochastic exiting overbought), T3 Break Down, ER Level Cross Down, HMA Break Down and Direction Down, TTM TREND Trend Down, and Fibonacci Break Down. This confluence of momentum, moving average, and Fibonacci signals points to a breakdown in the 4H structure.

Across timeframes, the bias is mixed but leans bearish: the 15m, 30m, 1h, 8h, 12h, and 1d are bearish, though mostly with choppy/sideways conditions (trend scores of 1-2/5), while the 2h and 4h are bullish but also with low trend strength. This suggests the bearish signal is a short-term momentum shift within a larger sideways or mildly bullish context, so the move may be corrective rather than a full reversal. Key levels to watch: immediate resistance at 158.603, and support at 156.075. A break below that support would confirm bearish continuation; failure to hold below resistance could invalidate the setup.

Catalysts

▼ Multiple indicators align in the same direction: ADX trend weak, stochastic overbought exit, T3/HMA breakdowns, TTM trend down, and Fibonacci break.
▼ Confluence of signal groups (indicator, candlestick, fibonacci) increases signal reliability.
▼ The 4H signal is supported by bearish trends across most other timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h, 8h, 12h, 1d).
▼ Very high probability (87%) and very strong strength score.

Risk Factors

▲ Higher timeframes (2h and 4h) are bullish, which could cap downside or trigger a reversal.
▲ Weak trend scores (1-2/5) across all timeframes suggest the market is choppy/sideways; false breakouts are possible.
▲ The ADX Trend Weak signal indicates the current trend is not robust; momentum could fade quickly.
▲ If price fails to break below the 156.075 support, the sell signal may be invalidated; a break above 158.603 would warn of a bullish resumption.