News report 🏭 Commodities 🌍 GLOBAL

Brent Crude Holds $94 Floor Amid Persistent Middle East Shipping Risks

Brent crude finds support at $94 as a 'no deal, no escalation' stalemate persists, keeping insurance premiums and freight costs high despite a recent increase in regional oil flows.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Commodities). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 0 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: UKOIL ↑ 3/10 (55% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

UKOIL

Bullish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Brent slid about 20% from the late-October $118 peak to about $94, even briefly below $90 on Wednesday. But with 37 ship attacks in October and Hormuz freight above $37 a barrel, a lasting 'no deal, no escalation' stalemate would keep costs high and could hold $94 as a floor, a mildly supportive setup.

Catalysts

▲ Trump said Thursday the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran
▲ 37 attacks on ships in October, a wartime monthly high, per Washington Institute data

Risk Factors

▼ Hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have repeatedly triggered sell-offs
▼ Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to nearly pre-war levels

USOIL

Bullish 🤖 55%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

WTI moves with Brent, which the article sees as near a $94 floor thanks to persisting Hormuz shipping risks (37 October ship attacks, freight above $37 a barrel). WTI futures at $88.79 would find similar support as long as the no-deal, no-escalation stalemate keeps Middle East supply costs elevated.

Catalysts

▲ Trump's Thursday comment that the U.S. needs no deal with Iran keeps escalation risk priced in
▲ Elevated insurance premiums and freight add sharply to the cost of each barrel leaving Hormuz

Risk Factors

▼ De-escalation hopes have repeatedly knocked prices down over recent weeks
▼ Hormuz crude flows have rebounded to nearly pre-war levels, easing supply fears

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Brent crude has fallen approximately 20% from its late-October peak of $118 to trade near $94.
Washington Institute data recorded 37 attacks on ships in October, marking a wartime monthly high.
IEA data shows Gulf-to-Asia freight costs reached over $37 per barrel by mid-October, more than five times pre-war levels.
President Trump stated on Thursday that the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran, keeping geopolitical risk premiums in the market.

📝 Executive Summary

Brent crude has retreated roughly 20% from its late-October peak of $118, yet prices are finding a floor near $94. Despite a rebound in regional oil flows, elevated shipping costs and 37 recorded vessel attacks in October maintain a high-risk environment that prevents a further slide.

❓ FAQ

UKOIL · Why did oil fall so much from its October peak?

Brent dropped roughly 20% from $118 in late October to about $94 as traders bet on de-escalation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, and as Hormuz crude flows rebounded to near pre-war levels.

UKOIL · Could prices fall much further from here?

The article argues that if the 'no deal but no escalation' stalemate persists, elevated shipping risks and high insurance premiums would put a floor under Brent near $94 a barrel.

USOIL · Does the WTI price also get support from the Middle East situation?

Yes. The article focuses on Brent, but the same Hormuz shipping risks and high insurance costs that put a floor under Brent at around $94 support the broader crude market, including WTI.

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