Analyst report 💱 Forex 🌍 EUROPE

EUR/USD Risks Breaking 1.10 as US Rate Credibility Outpaces ECB

EUR/USD faces downward pressure as widening swap differentials and superior US rate credibility overshadow the ECB's hawkish stance, putting the 1.10 level at risk.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/USD ↓ 4/10 (65% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

Short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials have widened to the widest levels of the year as markets see US tightening as more credible than the ECB's, weighing directly on the pair. ING sees no near-term relief ahead of the coming US inflation data and flags that a break below 1.10 is at risk into year-end, though it notes such a break is not a given.

Catalysts

▼ Short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials at the widest levels of the year
▼ Run of expected US inflation data over the coming weeks

Risk Factors

▲ A break below 1.10 is described as not a given
▲ ECB speakers sounding far more hawkish could relieve pressure

USD

Bullish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Markets view the potential for a prolonged US tightening cycle as more credible than in the eurozone, and wider short-dated swap differentials favor the dollar against the euro. The expected run of US inflation data in the coming weeks could keep that support in place.

Catalysts

▲ US tightening cycle seen as more credible than the eurozone's
▲ Expected US inflation data over the coming weeks

Risk Factors

▼ An AI crash, a far more hawkish ECB or geopolitical breakthroughs in Iran or Ukraine could erode the dollar's advantage

EUR

Bearish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 DE ✨ Inferred

Even though ECB rhetoric firmly points to a December rate hike, the market doubts a prolonged tightening cycle in the eurozone, with few ECB speakers citing a demand shock in Europe. This credibility gap has pushed short-dated swap differentials to the year's widest levels against the euro.

Catalysts

▼ ECB December rate-hike expectations failing to convince markets
▼ Short-dated swap differentials at the widest levels of the year against the euro

Risk Factors

▲ The ECB sounding far more hawkish could relieve pressure on the euro
▲ Geopolitical breakthrough in Iran or Ukraine cited as a potential support

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials have widened to the widest levels of the year.
The 1.10 level for EUR/USD is at risk of a break into year-end.
Markets view the US tightening cycle as more credible than the Eurozone's despite ECB rhetoric pointing to a December rate hike.

📝 Executive Summary

ING analyst Chris Turner warns that EUR/USD remains under pressure as markets favor the credibility of the US tightening cycle over the Eurozone. Despite ECB rhetoric signaling a December rate hike, widening short-dated swap differentials have reached their widest levels of the year, leaving the 1.10 level vulnerable through year-end.

❓ FAQ

EUR/USD · Why is EUR/USD under pressure despite ECB rate-hike talk?

Markets believe a prolonged tightening cycle is more credible in the US than in the eurozone, and short-dated EUR/USD swap differentials have widened to the widest levels of the year, weighing on the pair.

EUR/USD · What key level are analysts watching?

ING says 1.10 is at risk into year-end, although a break below it is not a given.

USD · What supports the dollar according to the analysis?

The market sees a prolonged US tightening cycle as more credible than in the eurozone, and short-dated swap differentials favor the dollar.

EUR · Is the ECB's hawkish rhetoric helping the euro?

Not currently: despite rhetoric pointing to a December rate hike, markets see the tightening cycle as more credible in the US, leaving the euro pressured.

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