Analyst report 💱 Forex 🌍 United States

US Dollar Stays Resilient as TD Securities Targets 1.43 for USD/CAD

TD Securities forecasts continued US Dollar strength driven by rising yields and aggressive Fed policy, targeting a retest of 1.43 for USD/CAD and further declines for EUR/USD toward sub-1.10.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USD ↑ 4/10 (65% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

USD

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

TD Securities' FX team argues the Dollar stays resilient until Fed hawkishness peaks, supported by stronger US data and rising yields, with the market pricing the Fed out-hiking other major central banks in the coming months. This is a bank's view, not new data, so the move is supportive but not a hard catalyst. The fading USD-equity risk-off correlation is a mild counterpoint.

Catalysts

▲ TD Securities sees rising US yields providing upward momentum for the USD
▲ Expectation that the Fed can out-hike other major central banks in the coming months

Risk Factors

▼ The USD's role as an equity risk-off haven has declined per the falling correlation with US equities
▼ Resilience expected only until peak Fed hawkishness, implying eventual limits

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The break below 1.11 has opened the door for more downside toward the sub-1.10 range according to TD Securities, which closed its EURUSD risk reversal position as downside prospects increased. The Fed out-hiking the ECB narrative weighs on the pair. As an analyst forecast, it supports the bearish bias but is not a confirmed event.

Catalysts

▼ Breakout below 1.11 in EURUSD seen opening the door to further downside
▼ TD Securities closed its EURUSD risk reversal position as sub-1.10 prospects increased

Risk Factors

▲ The call is conditional on the USD staying resilient until peak Fed hawkishness
▲ No new eurozone data in the article to independently confirm the downside path

USD/CAD

Bullish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 CA · Explicit

TD Securities expects USDCAD to retest the year-to-date high at 1.43 in the near term, as weak Canadian data weighs on near-term Bank of Canada rate hike likelihood relative to the Fed. A retest of a YTD high implies further pair upside. The view depends on the Fed remaining hawkish versus a dovish-leaning BoC.

Catalysts

▲ Weak Canadian data reducing near-term BoC rate hike likelihood relative to the Fed
▲ Pair expected to retest the year-to-date high at 1.43

Risk Factors

▼ The bullish call rests on the Fed staying hawkish; a shift in Fed expectations would undermine it
▼ No specific Canadian figures are cited to quantify the data weakness

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

TD Securities expects the USD/CAD pair to retest its year-to-date high of 1.43.
EUR/USD faces further downside toward the sub-1.10 range following a break below 1.11.
The US Dollar remains supported by rising yields and the expectation that the Fed will out-hike other major central banks.
TD Securities closed its EUR/USD risk reversal position due to increased prospects for spot downside.

📝 Executive Summary

TD Securities analysts Jayati Bharadwaj and Howard Du expect the US Dollar to maintain strength as rising yields and hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations outpace other central banks. The firm anticipates the USD/CAD pair will retest its year-to-date high of 1.43, while EUR/USD faces further downside pressure toward the sub-1.10 level following a breakout below 1.11.

❓ FAQ

USD · Why is the Dollar expected to stay strong?

TD Securities points to stronger US data and rising US yields, with the market believing the Fed can out-hike other major central banks in the coming months.

EUR/USD · What is the downside target for EUR/USD?

TD Securities sees the pair heading toward the sub-1.10 range after the break below 1.11.

USD/CAD · Where could USD/CAD go next?

TD Securities expects the pair to retest the year-to-date high at 1.43 in the near term on weak Canadian data and a Fed that out-hikes the Bank of Canada.

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