News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

EUR/USD Slips to 1.1050 as Fed Rate Hike Bets Rise on Inflation Data

EUR/USD extends losses to 1.1050 as US inflation data fuels Fed rate hike expectations, while rising oil prices following President Trump's comments on Iran further complicate the inflationary outlook.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

4 assets impacted (Forex, Commodities). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: EUR/USD ↓ 6/10 (80% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (4)

EUR/USD

Bearish 🤖 80%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair has fallen for a fourth straight day to around 1.1050 as stronger-than-expected US CPI reinforced Fed hike bets, with the market now pricing a 14.5% chance of a 50-basis-point December hike. ECB chief economist Lane offers only marginal support for the Euro, while Friday's US PPI (headline seen at 6.6% YoY, core 5.0%) is the next catalyst.

Catalysts

▼ US October PPI report due Friday, headline expected +6.6% YoY, core +5.0% YoY
▼ Market prices 14.5% chance of a 50bp Fed hike in December, up from zero before Tuesday's CPI

Risk Factors

▲ ECB's Lane warns second-round inflation effects would be a surprise not to occur, leaning modestly hawkish
▲ ECB still projected to deliver one final hike at its December meeting

USD

Bullish 🤖 80%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Persistent US inflation concerns and Fed rate hike expectations are lifting the Dollar: markets now assign a 14.5% probability to a 50-basis-point December hike, up from zero before Tuesday's CPI. Fed Governor Waller said a 50bp hike should be considered if core inflation stays elevated, and Friday's PPI is seen at 6.6% YoY headline.

Catalysts

▲ Stronger-than-expected US CPI earlier in the week reinforced December Fed hike expectations
▲ Fed Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered

Risk Factors

▼ Oil price jump after Trump's comment on Iran adds inflation concerns but also uncertainty
▼ If Friday's PPI comes in below the 6.6% headline forecast, hike bets could fade

EUR

Bearish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 EU · Explicit

Experts doubt the ECB's tightening cycle can be sustained: after two hikes this year and one final expected in December, growing economic uncertainty is expected to halt further tightening. Lane's speech scores only in line with the historic average (6.2/10) and limits immediate Euro upside, leaving the currency on the back foot against a hawkish repricing of the Fed.

Catalysts

▼ Doubts over the sustainability of the ECB tightening cycle beyond one final December hike
▼ ECB's Lane signals no major shift in tone, limiting Euro upside

Risk Factors

▲ Lane warns it would be a surprise if there are no second-round inflation effects, leaning modestly hawkish
▲ ECB readiness to counter bond-market fragmentation supports Euro stability

USOIL

Bullish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

President Trump said on Thursday that the US did not need a deal with Iran, quashing hopes of an agreement to end the conflict, and oil prices jumped on the news. Higher oil also fans inflationary concerns, indirectly reinforcing Fed hike bets.

Catalysts

▲ Trump's Thursday statement that the US did not need a deal with Iran
▲ Quashed hopes of a deal to end the conflict drove oil prices higher

Risk Factors

▼ The move is framed mainly through its inflationary side-effect rather than as a supply disruption with figures

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Markets now assign a 14.5% probability to a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, up from zero before Tuesday's CPI report.
The US October Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a 6.6% YoY headline increase and a 5.0% YoY core increase.
The European Central Bank is projected to deliver one final rate hike at its December meeting before halting tightening due to economic uncertainty.
Oil prices jumped on Thursday after President Trump stated the US does not need a deal with Iran, adding to inflationary pressures.

📝 Executive Summary

The Euro has fallen for four consecutive days, trading near 1.1050 as the US Dollar strengthens on persistent inflation concerns. Markets are now pricing in a 14.5% probability of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December, up from zero earlier this week. Investors are now awaiting Friday's US Producer Price Index report, which is expected to show headline inflation at 6.6% YoY.

❓ FAQ

EUR/USD · Why is EUR/USD falling?

Hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation this week lifted expectations of a Fed rate hike, including a 14.5% chance of a 50-basis-point move in December, boosting the US Dollar and pushing the pair down for a fourth day to around 1.1050.

EUR/USD · What should traders watch next?

The US October PPI report due Friday, with headline inflation expected at 6.6% YoY and core at 5.0% YoY, which will shape expectations for the Fed's December decision.

USD · Why is the Dollar strengthening?

Stronger-than-expected US CPI data has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, with markets now seeing a 14.5% chance of a 50-basis-point hike, up from zero before the report.

EUR · Is the ECB still expected to raise rates?

Yes, the ECB is projected to deliver one final hike at its December meeting, but growing economic uncertainty is expected to halt further tightening afterward.

USOIL · Why did oil prices rise?

US President Trump said on Thursday that the US did not need a deal with Iran, ending hopes of an agreement to end the conflict, and oil prices jumped on the news.

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