News report 🌐 Macro 🌍 GLOBAL

Fed Minutes and Nvidia Earnings Set to Drive Markets as Dollar Rallies

Markets focus on Fed minutes and Nvidia's Q3 results, while the US dollar remains bullish as the 10-year Treasury yield holds above 5.0% and global central banks face diverging policy pressures.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

5 assets impacted (Forex, Bonds, Stocks). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 1 Neutral. Strongest signal: USD ↑ 6/10 (70% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (5)

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Fed Governor Waller's openness to a 50-bps hike pushed up the dollar and Treasury yields, with a 25-bps December hike the minimum expectation and around a 10% odds of 50 bps. Wednesday's October meeting minutes could lift those odds if they show growing urgency on inflation. The risk to this is a weak retail sales print, which could take the heat off hawkish bets and weigh on the greenback.

Catalysts

▲ Fed minutes of the October meeting out on Wednesday
▲ Fed Governor Waller open to a 50-bps hike, with ~10% odds of 50 bps in December

Risk Factors

▼ A negative retail sales surprise could take the heat off hawkish expectations and weigh on the dollar
▼ Geopolitics and trade at the Trump-Xi summit tend to be dollar positive but outcomes are uncertain

US10Y

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5.0% after Waller's comments revived rate hike bets, in a sharp reversal of the post-election moves that had followed the oil price nosedive. Wednesday's October Fed minutes could lift yields further if they show growing urgency among FOMC members on inflation. A weak retail sales number is the main downside risk to yields.

Catalysts

▲ 10-year Treasury yield back above 5.0% after Waller's 50-bps hike comments
▲ October Fed minutes on Wednesday

Risk Factors

▼ A negative retail sales surprise could ease hawkish expectations and pull yields back down

AUD

Bearish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 AU · Explicit

The aussie has skidded almost 3% month-to-date in November as doubts grow about further RBA hikes, with unemployment approaching 5.0% and falling energy prices easing inflation pressure. Thursday's October employment data and Wednesday's Q3 wage figures will show whether the labour market is loosening, while Tuesday's minutes of the November 3 RBA meeting could push the aussie to fresh lows if they hint at a pause.

Catalysts

▼ RBA November 3 meeting minutes published on Tuesday
▼ October employment data due Thursday

Risk Factors

▲ A rebound in employment would help ease the aussie's pain
▲ Chinese industrial output and retail sales on Monday could shift sentiment toward the aussie

NVDA

Bearish 🤖 45%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Q3 results are due Tuesday with the bar to impress set high, right as the scandal around CEO Jensen Huang's affairs with an alleged Chinese spy and two employees, and his shock departure, makes the stock more vulnerable. A miss or disappointing guidance could trigger a selloff and a new AI rout with forced liquidations in gold and Bitcoin. Offset arguments: Nvidia's size and more advanced chips leave it less exposed to any cut in AI investment than smaller rivals.

Catalysts

▼ Q3 earnings report on Tuesday
▼ Scandal and shock departure of CEO Jensen Huang

Risk Factors

▲ Nvidia is less at risk from reduced AI investment than smaller rivals due to its size and more advanced chips
▲ A strong beat and guidance could relieve the pressure after the fear-driven positioning

GBP

Neutral 🤖 45%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GB · Explicit

Sterling's October rally ended in November as hot US NFP and CPI reports revived Fed hike bets, and it has underperformed the euro month-to-date. UK CPI on Wednesday could push the BoE toward a December hike after headline inflation hit 3.5% in September, the highest in a year, plus jobs data Tuesday and retail sales Friday. But a meaningful rebound against the dollar depends more on Fed rhetoric and geopolitics, which tend to be dollar positive.

Catalysts

• UK CPI on Wednesday, with September headline at 3.5%, highest in a year
• UK employment data Tuesday and retail sales Friday

Risk Factors

• Dollar strength from revived Fed hike bets caps any sterling rebound
• Patchy retail sales growth shows weak consumer spending

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5.0% following Fed Governor Waller's comments on potential 50-bps rate hikes.
Nvidia reports Q3 earnings on Tuesday, with the stock vulnerable to a selloff due to CEO Jensen Huang's shock departure and espionage scandal.
The Australian dollar has skidded almost 3% month-to-date in November as unemployment approaches 5.0% and RBA rate hike expectations fade.
UK headline inflation reached 3.5% in September, the highest level in a year, ahead of Wednesday's CPI release.
US retail sales are forecast to be flat month-over-month for October, excluding a 0.4% rise in motor vehicle and parts sales.

📝 Executive Summary

Investors are bracing for a volatile week as the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes may signal a hawkish shift, with markets pricing a 10% chance of a 50-bps hike in December. Meanwhile, Nvidia faces a critical test with its Q3 earnings report on Tuesday, occurring amid a scandal involving CEO Jensen Huang's shock departure and alleged espionage ties.

❓ FAQ

USD · Why are Fed rate hike bets back on?

Fed Governor Waller said he is open to a 50-basis-point hike after another upside surprise in October CPI, and investors now see a 25-bps December hike as the minimum with about a 10% chance of a larger 50-bps move.

USD · What data could change the dollar's direction this week?

The October Fed minutes on Wednesday and US retail sales; a weak retail sales figure could ease hawkish expectations and weigh on the dollar.

US10Y · What level is the 10-year Treasury yield at?

The article states the 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5.0% after revived rate hike bets.

US10Y · What could move yields this week?

The October Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and retail sales data; signs of urgency on inflation would lift yields, while a weak retail sales print could ease them.

AUD · Why has the Australian dollar been falling?

It has skidded almost 3% month-to-date in November as investors doubt the RBA needs further hikes, with unemployment approaching 5.0% and energy prices falling.

AUD · What could push the aussie lower this week?

Fresh clues in Tuesday's RBA minutes about a pause in the tightening cycle, or another deterioration in Thursday's employment data, could push the aussie to fresh lows.

NVDA · When does Nvidia report earnings?

Nvidia's results are out on Tuesday, along with Disney's; Walmart and Alibaba report on Thursday.

NVDA · Why is the CEO scandal a risk for the stock?

The article says the scandal involving CEO Jensen Huang and an alleged Chinese spy, plus his shock departure, makes the stock more vulnerable to a selloff if earnings miss estimates.

GBP · What UK data matters for the pound this week?

CPI on Wednesday, employment figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday; strong readings could pressure the BoE to hike as early as December and support the pound.

GBP · Can the pound rebound against the dollar?

The article says a meaningful rebound will depend more on Fed rhetoric and geopolitical developments, which tend to be dollar positive, than on the UK data alone.

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