News report 💱 Forex 🌍 United Kingdom

GBP/USD Slips to 1.3250 as Markets Price in 90% Chance of December Fed Hike

GBP/USD trades near 1.3250 as a hawkish Fed outlook outweighs positive UK growth figures, with investors now looking toward upcoming UK jobs and inflation data for further direction.

📅 November 12, 2026 🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: GBP/USD ↓ 6/10 (70% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

GBP/USD

Bearish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GB · Explicit

GBP/USD has fallen three straight days to around 1.3250, its lowest since October 15, because a ~90%-priced December 9 Fed hike would put US rates above the UK's 4.00% Bank Rate. Even strong UK GDP (0.7% in Q3) failed to stop the slide, hitting a four-week low on Thursday.

Catalysts

▼ December 9 Fed hike priced at about 90% after October 10 US inflation beat
▼ UK jobs data at 07:00 GMT on November 17 and October inflation on November 18 before the BoE's December 17 decision

Risk Factors

▲ A December 17 BoE hike is priced near 80%, which could narrow the rate gap
▲ Three of five UK figures beat forecasts and GDP matched expectations, limiting downside

USD

Bullish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

October US inflation beat forecasts on November 10 and futures put a quarter-point Fed hike on December 9 at about 90%, with the rest on a half-point. Cleveland Fed's Hammack said policy must become restrictive, supporting the Dollar against a Pound that even good UK data has not helped.

Catalysts

▲ ~90% probability of a December 9 Fed hike after the November 10 inflation beat
▲ Cleveland Fed President Hammack's comment that policy has to become restrictive

Risk Factors

▼ The Fed's October meeting minutes on November 18 could shift expectations between a quarter-point and half-point hike
▼ A half-point dissent view shows policy path is not fully settled

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

GBP/USD has declined for three straight days, retreating from Monday's close near 1.3450 to trade around 1.3250.
Futures markets indicate a 90% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on December 9 following the November 10 US inflation beat.
UK Q3 GDP grew 0.7%, matching forecasts, yet the Pound hit a four-week low on Thursday despite the positive print.
The Bank of England's Bank Rate currently sits at 4.00%, with a second hike on December 17 priced at approximately 80%.

📝 Executive Summary

The British Pound has fallen for three consecutive days, hitting its lowest level since October 15 at approximately 1.3250. Despite strong UK economic data, including 0.7% Q3 GDP growth, the currency remains under pressure as markets price in a 90% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on December 9, which would push US rates above the UK's 4.00% Bank Rate.

❓ FAQ

GBP/USD · Why is the Pound falling despite better UK growth?

Q3 GDP grew 0.7% as forecast and September rose 0.2% versus a flat forecast, but the Dollar is stronger because US inflation beat forecasts on November 10 and a December 9 Fed hike is about 90% priced, which would lift US rates above the UK's 4.00% Bank Rate.

GBP/USD · What upcoming data could move GBP/USD?

UK jobs figures on Tuesday, November 17 at 07:00 GMT (unemployment last at 4.7%, pay growth ex-bonuses at 3.7%) and October UK inflation on Wednesday, November 18 (after 3.5% in September), plus US PPI on Friday and Fed minutes on November 18.

USD · What is driving Dollar strength?

The October US inflation beat on November 10 pushed a December 9 Fed quarter-point hike to about 90% priced in futures, with the remainder on a half-point, and a Fed official saying policy has to become restrictive.

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