The New Zealand Dollar is trading near 0.5550, hovering just above its November 6 low after three consecutive sessions of declines. The currency faces downward pressure as markets fully price in a December 9 Federal Reserve rate hike, while the RBNZ maintains its Official Cash Rate at 2.75%.
Bearish
🤖 65%
NZD/USD sits near 0.5550, close to its November 6 low, after three straight losses as the Fed has a December 9 hike fully priced while the RBNZ held at 2.75% on October 28, widening the rate gap to at least a full percentage point. Weak October manufacturing PMI at 54.9 and a possible Labour-driven mandate change point to lower NZ rates. The upcoming RBNZ inflation expectations survey on November 17 after 2.34% last time is the main event that could halt the slide.
Catalysts
- ▼ RBNZ quarterly inflation expectations survey at 02:00 GMT on Tuesday, November 17, after 2.34% last time
- ▼ Fed December 9 hike fully priced per futures, with Daly saying more tightening is needed
Risk Factors
- ▲ RBNZ Financial Stability Report on Monday and the inflation expectations survey could revive the currency if they show inflation pressure
- ▲ Nearly 400K election votes uncounted until November 27 could shift the outcome away from a Labour-influenced mandate with lower rates