AUD/USD hits a fresh low since January at 0.6830, pressured by a hawkish Fed outlook, the RBA's recent dovish pivot, and safe-haven demand for the USD amid the US-Iran standoff.
AUD/USD hit a fresh low since January around 0.6830, down 0.25% on the day, pressured by the RBA's dovish move in early November (6-3 vote split, removal of tightening guidance) and a rising USD on expectations of a Fed hike, possibly 50 bps, in December. US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz add safe-haven demand for the dollar, keeping the near-term outlook tilted bearish.
The AUD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level since January, trading near 0.6830 as the US Dollar gains strength. The decline follows the RBA's dovish November rate decision and rising market expectations for a potential 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December. Geopolitical instability, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is further fueling safe-haven demand for the Greenback.
The RBA turned dovish earlier in November while markets increasingly expect the Fed to raise rates again in December, possibly by a larger 50 basis points. Stronger US inflation data and Middle East tensions that lift safe-haven dollar demand add to the pressure, pushing the pair to its lowest level since January near 0.6830.
A break back above 0.6900 would ease the bearish tone and could open the way toward the 100-day moving average at 0.7026. Softer US jobs data, dovish Fed comments or a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz would also help.