USD/CAD maintains a bullish bias above the 100-day SMA at 1.4045, supported by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and a weakening Canadian Dollar amid falling oil prices.
The pair has already climbed to around 1.4260 and holds above the 100-day SMA, with falling crude oil weighing on the oil-linked Loonie. Hotter-than-expected US CPI plus hawkish Fed voices (Waller supporting a December hike, Goolsbee's 8/10 hawkish Speechtracker score) and fading BoC rate-hike pricing per TD Securities support further USD/CAD upside. Against this, RSI near 67 flags overbought conditions and US mediators noted persistent disagreement in Russia-Ukraine talks.
The article notes falling crude oil prices are exerting selling pressure on the Canadian Dollar, implying oil is trading lower. However, this is presented as context rather than a market-moving event in itself, and the reported progress in Russia-Ukraine talks (a prisoner-exchange agreement) points toward easing supply-risk premiums. The move is therefore mildly negative for oil with limited direct price impact stated.
The USD/CAD pair climbed to 1.4260 as falling crude oil prices pressured the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. Hawkish signals from Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Austan Goolsbee, have bolstered market expectations for a December rate hike, while TD Securities notes that diverging employment data supports further upside for the US Dollar.
The US Dollar is being supported by hotter-than-expected US inflation and hawkish Fed commentary pointing to a possible December rate hike, while falling oil prices weigh on the oil-exporting Canada's dollar.
The article flags resistance at the October 12 high of 1.4287, then 1.4415 and 1.4542, with support at 1.4240 and 1.4205 if the rally stalls.
It only notes that crude oil prices are currently falling, which is weighing on the Canadian Dollar; no specific forecast or price level for oil is given.