News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

AUD/USD Slides to 0.6800 as Fed Hawkishness Drives USD to 19-Month High

The US Dollar Index climbed to 103.24 as Fed policymakers signaled further tightening, pressuring the AUD/USD pair despite a rise in US initial jobless claims to 200K.

📅 November 12, 2026 🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: AUD/USD ↓ 5/10 (75% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

AUD/USD

Bearish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

AUD/USD fell 0.67% to around 0.6800 as hawkish Fed commentary pushed the US Dollar to 19-month highs, with markets pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. The technical picture is bearish: spot sits below broken trendline resistance at 0.6926 and the SMA cluster near 0.7020, with RSI at 32.58 showing lingering downside pressure. Softer US jobless claims (200K) only mildly dented the dollar move, so the hawkish-Fed driver dominates.

Catalysts

▼ Hawkish Fed speeches on November 12 from Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly and Schmid pointing to more tightening
▼ 87% market-implied odds of a 25-bps Fed rate hike in December

Risk Factors

▲ US initial jobless claims rose to 200K vs 195K expected, slightly softer data could limit dollar strength
▲ RSI at 32.58 near oversold, so the pair may stabilise rather than extend losses

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

The Dollar hit a 19-month high with the DXY at 103.24, up 0.31% on the day, as most Fed officials leaned hawkish and markets see an 87% chance of a 25-bps December hike. Even softer jobless claims (200K vs 195K expected) failed to reverse the move. A higher-than-expected PPI (6.6% forecast vs 6.3% prior) would reinforce the hawkish case.

Catalysts

▲ Hawkish Fed rhetoric on November 12: Daly says inflation pressure 'is up, not down', Hammack sees worsening inflation outlook
▲ CME FedWatch shows 87% probability of a 25-bps December hike and 13% odds of 50 bps

Risk Factors

▼ Initial jobless claims rose to 200K vs 195K estimate, a hint of labour-market softening
▼ Continuing claims fell to 1.697 million, signalling the labour market remains solid rather than weakening sharply

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

The US Dollar Index reached a 19-month high of 103.24 on November 12.
Markets price an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December.
AUD/USD fell 0.67% to trade at 0.6805, remaining below the 0.6926 resistance level.
US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 7 rose to 200K, exceeding the 195K estimate.

📝 Executive Summary

The Australian Dollar fell 0.67% to 0.6800 as hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials bolstered the US Dollar to a 19-month high. Markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, overshadowing slightly softer US jobless claims data.

❓ FAQ

AUD/USD · Why did the Australian Dollar drop against the US Dollar?

Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials lifted the US Dollar to 19-month highs, and markets price an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, which pushed AUD/USD down 0.67% to around 0.6800.

AUD/USD · What levels matter for AUD/USD now?

Resistance sits at 0.6926, then the SMA cluster near 0.7020; the main downside support is around 0.6342 if the current slide extends.

USD · What is driving the US Dollar higher?

Hawkish statements from multiple Fed officials and market expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December (87% probability) pushed the DXY to a multi-month high of 103.24.

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