News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

USD/CAD Holds at 1.4250 as Fed Hike Odds Rise to 14.5% and Oil Stocks Build

USD/CAD remains supported above 1.40 as US inflation concerns and a surprise 9 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles pressure the commodity-linked Loonie.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

2 assets impacted (Commodities, Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USOIL ↓ 5/10 (75% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (2)

USOIL

Bearish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

WTI loses momentum after US crude stockpiles climbed 9 million barrels in the week ending November 5, far above expectations for a 1 million barrel decline and reversing the prior week's 5.267 million barrel draw. The sharp build fuels oversupply worries, pressuring prices and, through the oil-CAD link, supporting USD/CAD.

Catalysts

▼ EIA report: crude inventories rose 9 million barrels in the week ending November 5 vs consensus for a 1 million barrel decline
▼ Oversupply concerns from the surprise stockpile build

Risk Factors

▲ The inventory build is a single weekly datapoint and could reverse in the next EIA report

USD/CAD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair trades around 1.4250 after two days of gains, with both drivers favouring further appreciation: strong US CPI has lifted December Fed hike odds (14.5% chance of a 50bp hike, up from zero), while weak Canadian labour data reduces December BoC hike pricing. TD Securities sees USDCAD supported above 1.40. The main offset is that Friday's US PPI could surprise either way.

Catalysts

▲ US October PPI report due Friday, headline expected +6.6% YoY, core +5.0% YoY
▲ Market odds of a 50bp Fed hike in December rose to 14.5% from zero after Tuesday's hot CPI

Risk Factors

▼ Friday's PPI could come in below the 6.6% YoY consensus and cool Fed hike expectations
▼ The pair has moved little in Asian hours despite prior gains, suggesting some hesitation around 1.4250

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Market odds for a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose to 14.5% from zero following recent US CPI data.
US crude oil inventories climbed by 9 million barrels in the week ending November 5, significantly exceeding the expected 1 million barrel decline.
TD Securities analysts expect the USD to rally against the CAD due to diverging employment data and reduced expectations for a December BoC rate hike.
Friday's US PPI report is expected to show headline inflation at 6.6% YoY and core inflation at 5.0% YoY.

📝 Executive Summary

The USD/CAD pair trades near 1.4250 as diverging monetary policy expectations and rising US crude inventories weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Markets now price a 14.5% chance of a 50-basis-point Fed hike in December, while weak Canadian labor data dampens Bank of Canada tightening prospects. Investors are now awaiting Friday's US PPI report, with headline inflation expected to print at 6.6% year-on-year.

❓ FAQ

USOIL · Why is oil under pressure?

US crude inventories rose by 9 million barrels last week, well above the expected 1 million barrel draw, raising worries about oversupply.

USOIL · How does oil affect the Canadian Dollar?

Petroleum is Canada's biggest export, so falling oil prices tend to weaken the Canadian Dollar, which supports the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD · Why is USD/CAD expected to rise?

Strong US inflation data has raised expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, while weak Canadian employment data has lowered expectations of a Bank of Canada hike, and falling oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

USD/CAD · What is the key event to watch?

The US October Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Friday, with headline inflation expected up 6.6% year-on-year and core PPI up 5.0% year-on-year.

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