News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

AUD/USD Slips to 0.6785 as Fed Hike Bets Boost US Dollar Sentiment

AUD/USD faces persistent bearish pressure as US Dollar strength builds on an 85.5% chance of a December Fed rate hike and technical indicators remain below key moving averages.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 1 Bullish, 2 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USD ↑ 5/10 (70% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US · Explicit

Fed Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core inflation stays elevated, and traders put an 85.5% probability on a December 8-9 hike. Rising Treasury yields after Trump's comment that Washington does not need a deal with Iran add support. A strategist notes continued Dollar upside if more officials back a 50-basis-point hike, though a sharp equity selloff could turn the Dollar negative.

Catalysts

▲ US October PPI report due Friday
▲ Fed officials speaking next week

Risk Factors

▼ A further sharp selloff in equity markets could be negative for the US Dollar
▼ FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 0.08 points to 147.47, a minor pullback in perceived hawkishness

AUD/USD

Bearish 🤖 65%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair fell to about 0.6785 on Friday as markets price an ~85.5% chance of a December 8-9 Fed hike, with 14.5% odds of a 50-basis-point move, boosting the US Dollar. Australian November inflation expectations at 5.3%, more than double the RBA target, add pressure. Technicals show price below the 20- and 100-day SMAs, though RSI at 31.9 is near oversold and the January 19 low of 0.6668 is the first support.

Catalysts

▼ US October PPI report due later Friday
▼ Fed pricing: ~85.5% chance of a December 8-9 hike, 14.5% for 50 bps

Risk Factors

▲ RSI (14) at 31.9 near oversold, hinting stretched selling momentum
▲ A sharp equity selloff could weaken the US Dollar and lift the pair, per CBA strategist Carol Kong

AUD

Bearish 🤖 60%

📅 Short-term 🌍 AU ✨ Inferred

November Australian inflation expectations held at 5.3%, over double the RBA's mid-point target, underscoring persistent price pressures while the Fed turns more hawkish. The widening rate path divergence weighs on the currency, with RBA meeting minutes next week offering the next domestic signal.

Catalysts

▼ RBA meeting minutes due next week
▼ November Australian inflation expectations at 5.3%

Risk Factors

▲ Elevated inflation could argue for RBA support of the currency if policy turns tighter

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

Markets assign an 85.5% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting, with 14.5% odds for a 50-basis-point move.
Australian November inflation expectations held at 5.3%, remaining more than double the RBA's mid-point target.
The AUD/USD pair is trading below both the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, maintaining a bearish near-term technical bias.
The Relative Strength Index (14) is at 31.9, indicating the pair is nearing oversold territory.
Initial support for the pair is identified at the January 19 low of 0.6668.

📝 Executive Summary

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6785 as markets price in an 85.5% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike during the December 8-9 meeting. Growing hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, continues to support the US Dollar, while Australian inflation expectations remain elevated at 5.3%.

❓ FAQ

USD · What is driving the US Dollar higher?

Growing bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, including talk of a 50-basis-point move if core inflation remains elevated, are supporting the Dollar.

AUD/USD · Why is AUD/USD falling?

Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, possibly 50 basis points in December, are strengthening the US Dollar against the Australian Dollar, and the pair's daily chart shows a bearish setup below key moving averages.

AUD/USD · Where are the key levels to watch?

Resistance sits around 0.6800, then 0.6960 and 0.7000, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7025 above. Support is at the January 19 low of 0.6668, then 0.6592 and 0.6458.

AUD · What is hurting the Australian Dollar?

Australian inflation expectations of 5.3% remain far above the RBA's target while the US Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates in December, making the US Dollar relatively more attractive.

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