News report 💱 Forex 🌍 GLOBAL

USD/CHF Rallies to 0.8360 as Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb to 85.5%

USD/CHF extends its winning streak to four days at 0.8360, supported by an 85.5% market probability of a December Fed rate hike and a widening interest rate gap against Switzerland's 0% borrowing costs.

📅 November 13, 2026 🕐 1 min read

3 assets impacted (Forex). Net bias: 2 Bullish, 1 Bearish, 0 Neutral. Strongest signal: USD/CHF ↑ 6/10 (75% confidence).

📊 Affected Assets (3)

USD/CHF

Bullish 🤖 75%

📅 Short-term 🌍 GLOBAL · Explicit

The pair is up a fourth straight session around 0.8360 as hotter-than-expected US CPI this week lifted odds of a December 8-9 Fed hike to 85.5% (14.5% for a half-point move), widening the rate gap with Switzerland, where rates are seen holding at 0%. A fourth consecutive up day signals genuine momentum, though SNB readiness to curb sharp franc appreciation and carry-trade unwinding could cap gains.

Catalysts

▲ Stronger-than-expected US CPI earlier this week reinforced December rate-hike forecasts
▲ Friday's US PPI report: October headline expected +6.6% year-on-year, core +5.0%

Risk Factors

▼ Safe-haven franc demand from eurozone sovereign debt fears and AI-related market risks is driving carry-trade unwinding, pressuring the pair lower
▼ SNB officials told lawmakers on Wednesday it stands ready to intervene against sharp franc appreciation

USD

Bullish 🤖 70%

📅 Short-term 🌍 US ✨ Inferred

Stronger-than-expected US CPI released earlier this week pushed market-implied odds of a Fed hike on December 8-9 to 85.5%, with a 14.5% chance of a half-point move after Governor Waller said 50 basis points should be considered if core inflation stays elevated. Higher expected US rates support the dollar, with Friday's PPI (headline +6.6% y/y expected) the next test.

Catalysts

▲ Fed Governor Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered if core inflation stays elevated
▲ Friday's US PPI report expected to show October headline +6.6% year-on-year

Risk Factors

▼ A softer-than-expected PPI print on Friday could dial back December hike expectations

CHF

Bearish 🤖 50%

📅 Short-term 🌍 CH ✨ Inferred

With Swiss borrowing costs projected to hold at 0%, the lowest globally, the franc is being sold as a funding currency for carry trades, weighing on it. However, safe-haven demand from eurozone sovereign debt fears and AI-related market risks has triggered carry-trade unwinding that lifts the franc, so the bearish case is mixed.

Catalysts

▼ Swiss rates seen holding at 0%, the lowest globally, encouraging carry-trade selling of the franc
▼ SNB softened its rhetoric on currency interventions

Risk Factors

▲ Carry-trade unwinding driven by safe-haven demand is putting upward pressure on the franc
▲ SNB officials reiterated on Wednesday it is prepared to step in to curb sharp franc appreciation

🧭 Full analysis of these assets

🎯 Key Takeaways

USD/CHF is trading near 0.8360, marking a fourth straight day of gains.
CME FedWatch data shows an 85.5% probability of a Fed rate hike at the December 8-9 meeting.
October headline US PPI is expected to rise 6.6% year-on-year, with core PPI projected at 5.0%.
Swiss borrowing costs remain at 0%, the lowest globally, pressuring the franc as a carry-trade funding currency.
SNB officials confirmed on Wednesday they remain prepared to intervene to prevent sharp franc appreciation.

📝 Executive Summary

The USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.8360, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains as US inflation concerns fuel expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are currently pricing in an 85.5% probability of a hike during the December 8-9 meeting, with investors now awaiting Friday's US Producer Price Index data to gauge the central bank's next policy move.

❓ FAQ

USD/CHF · Why is USD/CHF rising?

Hotter US inflation data lifted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December to about 85.5%, widening the interest rate advantage of the US over Switzerland, where borrowing costs are expected to stay at 0%. The franc is also being sold for carry trades.

USD/CHF · What could stop the rise?

Safe-haven buying of the franc on eurozone debt fears and AI-related market risks has eroded carry-trade returns and triggered unwinding that lifts the franc, and the SNB has said it remains prepared to intervene if the franc appreciates sharply.

USD · What is driving dollar strength?

Persistent inflation concerns and a stronger-than-expected US CPI report this week have reinforced forecasts of a Fed rate hike in December, with traders pricing roughly 85.5% odds and even a 14.5% chance of a half-point increase.

CHF · Why is the Swiss franc weak?

Swiss borrowing costs are expected to hold at 0%, the lowest globally, so investors sell the franc to fund carry trades into higher-yielding assets abroad, putting it under downward pressure.

CHF · What supports the franc despite this?

Safe-haven demand from fears of a eurozone sovereign debt crisis and AI-related market risks has eroded carry-trade returns, prompting investors to unwind positions and putting upward pressure on the currency.

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