USD/JPY Dollar-yen · Forecast & Analysis
Heads-up: USD Core CPI is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI y/y is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD CPI y/y is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD CPI is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD CPI m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.
Bearish chart signals pull dollar-yen lower over the coming week, but a strong dollar after the US jobs beat and weak Japanese spending keep the pair balanced and the monthly view neutral. US CPI shortly could decide the next move.
News situation · 473 items / 30 D
1 of 473 straight from the issuer or regulator
USD/JPY chart by timeframe
Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.
Outlook for US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.
No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 473 news items.
What drives it
- The US jobs report nearly tripled expectations, lifting December Fed hike odds and strengthening the dollar.
- Japanese household spending fell 6.8% year-on-year, arguing against further BoJ tightening and yen strength.
- Hawkish BoJ minutes point to a December hike, and disclosed intervention risk caps dollar-yen upside.
- Price has been little changed over the past week and month, with only a slight fall in the last 24 hours.
What argues against it
- The densest bearish cluster fired on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts, with over 20 indicators crossing down.
- A hotter-than-expected US CPI could revive Fed hike bets and push the pair back up.
- Markets resist pushing USD/JPY above 158.70 near the 200-day average; Rabobank sees 155.00 on three months.
What would change the picture
- US CPI is due shortly; a clear beat or miss versus expectations would tilt the pair's direction.
- A move above 158.768 would invalidate the bearish technical setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
- A break below support at 157.69 would confirm bearish continuation across the higher timeframes.
Coming up
- US: Consumer prices · expected 2.8%, previous 2.6%
- US: Jobless claims
Economic data for USD/JPY
Full calendarComing up
- TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896in 3h
- TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%in 3h
- TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%in 3h
- TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 3h
- TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 3h
- TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 3h
- TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 3h
- November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 2 days
All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on USDJPY.
Trend across all eight timeframes
What this means for your trading style
- Fresh 15- and 30-minute signals are bullish as oscillators exit oversold; these are counter-trend bounces in a larger downtrend and can fade quickly.
The text for this card no longer matches its rating, so it is hidden.
- The 4- and 8-hour charts fired the densest bearish cluster on the asset, but sideways trend strength means the move may lack follow-through.
- On the 12-hour and daily view the trend is choppy and sideways, so there is no clear direction for position traders.
Both worlds over time
One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.
8 active signals for USD/JPY
Last 72 hours
What is being reported about USD/JPY
General news on USD and JPY
These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/JPY; in the news verdict they count half.
In-depth analysis of US Dollar / Japanese Yen
AI-generated · as of November 10, 2026
USD/JPY has moved little over the past week and month, and the verdict reflects that standoff: the chart side leans bearish while the news side argues both ways. The strongest technical evidence sits on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts, where more than twenty momentum and trend measures crossed down within a day, joined by a bearish engulfing candle.
Read full analysis
Resistance at 158.768 and support near 157.69 frame the range. Fresh news cuts both ways. Japan's household spending collapsed 6.8% year-on-year in September, the tenth straight decline and far worse than expected, which lowers expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening and supports the dollar against the yen. The BoJ's own minutes, though, show broad agreement that further rate increases are appropriate, and officials disclosed a record 7.98 trillion yen of currency purchases over the summer, a reminder of intervention risk that has historically capped the pair. On the US side, October payrolls of 165,000 nearly tripled forecasts and lifted December Fed hike odds, strengthening the dollar broadly. The high-impact US CPI release due shortly is the obvious pivot: a hot print would favour the dollar and challenge the bearish chart read, while a soft one would let the yen recover. Until then, the balance holds.
Frequently asked questions about US Dollar / Japanese Yen
What moves USD/JPY at the moment?
Mostly the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, and each side's next step. A December Fed hike is widely priced after the jobs beat, while the BoJ minutes point the same way. Weak Japanese spending muddies the yen side, and past intervention still limits how far the pair can climb.
What could the upcoming US CPI release change?
It is the main event risk in the days ahead. A hotter-than-expected inflation print would strengthen Fed hike bets and the dollar, supporting USD/JPY and challenging the bearish chart signals. A soft print would ease that pressure and let the yen recover ground lost since the jobs report.
Why is the coming week bearish but the next few weeks neutral?
The bearish signals are concentrated on the 4-hour and 8-hour charts, which fit a week-long horizon. Those same timeframes show a choppy, sideways trend with weak momentum, so the decline may not extend, and over several weeks the offsetting rate expectations and intervention risk leave the picture without a clear direction.
📝 Overview Generated automatically
USD/JPY has been the subject of 473 signals across 473 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (58%).
Breakdown: 143 bullish, 273 bearish, 57 neutral.
Most-cited catalysts: BOJ rate hike expectations (4×), Unwinding of yen-funded carry trades (3×), Broad-based weakness of the Japanese Yen against major currency peers (3×). Most-cited risk factors: Bank of Japan intervention to support the yen (5×), Potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Yen (5×), Bank of Japan intervention to weaken yen (4×).
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