💱 Forex · Global

USD/JPY Dollar-yen · Forecast & Analysis

Forex Global
158.12
+0.06 %
7 D
Updated 7 min ago
Overall assessment · Trend + news, checked against price
▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good
Price +0.06 % 24h · +0.11 % 7d · -0.12 % 30dTrend ▬ mixed: 0 up, 1 down of 8News ▬ 473 reports, latest 10.11.

Heads-up: USD Core CPI is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD Core CPI y/y is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD CPI y/y is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD Core CPI m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD CPI is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD CPI m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Heads-up: USD Core CPI n.s.a. m/m is due in 3 h (high impact). The outlook can shift noticeably around it.

Bearish chart signals pull dollar-yen lower over the coming week, but a strong dollar after the US jobs beat and weak Japanese spending keep the pair balanced and the monthly view neutral. US CPI shortly could decide the next move.

News situation · 473 items / 30 D
▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good
4.7 Impact / 10
By source type
News 423 Analyst 49 Release 1

1 of 473 straight from the issuer or regulator

Technicals · trend now
▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good

1 of 8 timeframes down

8 active signals (1 long / 7 short), strongest: 2H at 100 %

AI-generated · as of November 10, 2026
24 h
+0.06 %
Active signals
8 (1↑ / 7↓)
Technicals
Neutral
News, 30 days
Neutral
Chart

USD/JPY chart by timeframe

Trendlines, support and resistance and patterns come from the newest signal of the selected timeframe.

USD/JPY · 15M
Loading chart

Outlook

Outlook for US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Direction, typical moves and upcoming dates from our own price, news and calendar data, recalculated on every visit. An assessment, not investment advice.

Next 7 days · 4h–8h trend and news
▼ Bearish weak
Data coverage good
60 % technicals 40 % news
Next 4 weeks · 12h–1d trend and news
▬ Neutral weak
Data coverage good
30 % technicals 70 % news
Next 3 months · news of the last 30 days only
▬ Neutral weak
Data coverage good

No price statement: our price history does not reach that far. Based on 473 news items.

What drives it
  • The US jobs report nearly tripled expectations, lifting December Fed hike odds and strengthening the dollar.
  • Japanese household spending fell 6.8% year-on-year, arguing against further BoJ tightening and yen strength.
  • Hawkish BoJ minutes point to a December hike, and disclosed intervention risk caps dollar-yen upside.
  • Price has been little changed over the past week and month, with only a slight fall in the last 24 hours.
What argues against it
  • The densest bearish cluster fired on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts, with over 20 indicators crossing down.
  • A hotter-than-expected US CPI could revive Fed hike bets and push the pair back up.
  • Markets resist pushing USD/JPY above 158.70 near the 200-day average; Rabobank sees 155.00 on three months.
What would change the picture
  • US CPI is due shortly; a clear beat or miss versus expectations would tilt the pair's direction.
  • A move above 158.768 would invalidate the bearish technical setup and could trigger a short squeeze.
  • A break below support at 157.69 would confirm bearish continuation across the higher timeframes.
Coming up
  • US: Consumer prices · expected 2.8%, previous 2.6%
  • US: Jobless claims
All dates ↓ All times UTC.
Typical move

7 days: typically ±0.5%, strong from ±1.5%, actual +0.1%

30 days: typically ±1.0%, strong from ±3.0%, actual −0.1%

Economic data for USD/JPY

Full calendar

Coming up

  • TodayUSDCore CPI●●●Forecast 339.796Previous 338.896in 3h
  • TodayUSDCore CPI y/y●●●Forecast 2.8%Previous 2.6%in 3h
  • TodayUSDCPI y/y●●●Forecast 4.2%Previous 3.7%in 3h
  • TodayUSDCore CPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.2%Previous 0.3%in 3h
  • TodayUSDCPI●●●Forecast 338.683Previous 336.298in 3h
  • TodayUSDCPI m/m●●●Forecast 0.5%Previous 0.6%in 3h
  • TodayUSDCore CPI n.s.a. m/m●●●Previous 0.4%in 3h
  • November 12, 2026USDInitial Jobless Claims●●●in 2 days

All times UTC. Assessed against the consensus forecast, otherwise against the previous value. Price reaction measured on USDJPY.

Technicals

Trend across all eight timeframes

15M Scalping ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 17.3
30M Scalping ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 13.8
1H Intraday ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 17.7
2H Intraday ▼ Bearish Trend forming ADX 21.5
4H Swing ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 14.5
8H Swing ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 15.9
12H Position ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 16.1
1D Position ▬ Neutral Choppy / sideways ADX 8.4
By trading style

What this means for your trading style

Scalping 15m · 30m
▲ Bullish weak Data coverage good
PRO
64 %
historical hit rate · 86 comparable setups
  • Fresh 15- and 30-minute signals are bullish as oscillators exit oversold; these are counter-trend bounces in a larger downtrend and can fade quickly.
MACD Hidden Bear Div
Intraday 1h · 2h
▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good
PRO
66 %
historical hit rate · 50 comparable setups

The text for this card no longer matches its rating, so it is hidden.

EMA Retreat Down Trendline Break Down
Swing 4h · 8h
▼ Bearish weak Data coverage good
PRO
56 %
historical hit rate · 27 comparable setups
  • The 4- and 8-hour charts fired the densest bearish cluster on the asset, but sideways trend strength means the move may lack follow-through.
RSI Hidden Bear Div Stoch Regular Bear Div
Position 12h · 1d
▬ Neutral weak Data coverage good
PRO
—
too few comparable cases (0) for a reliable rate
  • On the 12-hour and daily view the trend is choppy and sideways, so there is no clear direction for position traders.
Signal history

Both worlds over time

One dot per day and source, 30 days. Technicals: trend across all timeframes at the close of the day. News: net direction of the day.

Bullish ▲Bearish ▼12.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 2 up, 1 down of 812.10. · News signal · 913.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 2 of 8 timeframes down13.10. · News signal · 2614.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 3 of 8 timeframes down14.10. · News signal · 2015.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 1 of 8 timeframes down15.10. · News signal · 2116.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 0 up, 1 down of 816.10. · News signal · 2417.10. · News signal · 219.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bullish · 2 of 8 timeframes up19.10. · News signal · 1620.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 1 of 8 timeframes down20.10. · News signal · 1421.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 0 up, 1 down of 821.10. · News signal · 2022.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 5 of 8 timeframes down22.10. · News signal · 1223.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 5 of 8 timeframes down23.10. · News signal · 1024.10. · News signal · 126.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 3 up, 3 down of 826.10. · News signal · 2027.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bullish · 4 of 8 timeframes up27.10. · News signal · 1428.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 1 up, 3 down of 828.10. · News signal · 1529.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 1 up, 0 down of 829.10. · News signal · 1930.10. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 3 of 8 timeframes down30.10. · News signal · 1802.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 0 up, 1 down of 802.11. · News signal · 1403.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bullish · 3 of 8 timeframes up03.11. · News signal · 1604.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · no timeframe with a real trend (ADX 20+), 8 with data04.11. · News signal · 3005.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 3 of 8 timeframes down05.11. · News signal · 2306.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · no timeframe with a real trend (ADX 20+), 8 with data06.11. · News signal · 5307.11. · News signal · 509.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Bearish · 4 of 8 timeframes down09.11. · News signal · 3810.11. · Technicals (trend of the day) · Neutral · mixed: 0 up, 1 down of 8 · current10.11. · News signal · 33
30 days ago today
Technicals (trend of the day) News signal Size: news = reports that day, technicals = timeframes with data
Active signals

8 active signals for USD/JPY

Last 72 hours

Signal USD/JPY · 2H · SELL 100% VERY STRONG
▲ 0% ▼ 100%
UPDATED Intraday Premium Forecast 55%
Trendline Break Down EMA Retreat Down
15M
30M
1H
2H
4H
8H
12H
1D
Signal USD/JPY · 8H · SELL 96% VERY STRONG
▲ 4% ▼ 96%
UPDATED Swing Premium Forecast 50%
RSI Hidden Bear Div Stoch Regular Bear Div
15M
30M
1H
2H
4H
8H
12H
1D
News, 30 days

What is being reported about USD/JPY

Analyst Bearish Impact 4/10
USD/JPY Faces Downside Risk as ING Eyes Potential Japanese Growth Surprise
ING's Chris Turner argues Japan could deliver upside growth surprises, mirroring South Korea where the Bank of Korea raised 2026 GDP forecast to 3.3% …
November 10, 2026
News Bearish Impact 3/10
USD Index Consolidates Below 102.00 Ahead of October Inflation Data
The pair lost about 0.3% on Monday and stabilized around 158.00 early Tuesday. The BoJ's Summary of Opinions from the October meeting showed some memb…
November 10, 2026
News Bearish Impact 4/10
USD/JPY Trades Near 157.95 as Markets Await US CPI Inflation Data
The pair trades near 157.95 with a slightly bearish bias below the 100-day SMA at 159.00. BoJ board members signalling a possible December rate hike a…
November 10, 2026
News Bearish Impact 4/10
AUD/JPY Slips Below 109.50 as Record 7.98 Trillion JPY Intervention Weighs
Rabobank analysts note the market's reluctance to push USD/JPY above the 158.70 area (200-day SMA) and forecast the pair edging lower to 155.00 on a 3…
November 10, 2026
News Bearish Impact 3/10
EUR/JPY Trades Near 177.30 as Yen Strength Caps Upside Potential
Rabobank strategists note the market shows a clear reluctance to push USD/JPY above the 158.70 area, which coincides with the 200-day simple moving av…
November 10, 2026
News Bullish Impact 5/10
USD/JPY Climbs Above 158.00 as Japan Household Spending Drops 6.8%
Japanese Household Spending collapsed 6.8% year-on-year in September, the 10th straight decline and the sharpest drop since September 2020, far worse …
November 10, 2026

General news on USD and JPY

These reports concern one side of the pair. The label shows their effect on USD/JPY; in the news verdict they count half.

USD in general USD/JPY: Neutral Impact 2/10
WTI Crude Oil Slips Below $84.00 to Fresh Low Since Late August
The article notes a weak US Dollar lending some support to oil, and traders are awaiting US consumer inflation figures for direction. This is a passin…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Neutral
USD in general USD/JPY: Bearish Impact 5/10
US Dollar Slips as Brent Crude Nears USD90 and Treasury Yields Retreat
The Dollar Index has dropped below Friday's high, giving back all gains made after the stronger NFP report, as lower Brent prices near USD90 and falli…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Bearish
USD in general USD/JPY: Bullish Impact 7/10
Fed Governor Waller Signals Potential 0.5% Rate Hike for December
Fed Governor Waller on Tuesday signalled more tightening is needed, openly backing a possible half-point December hike if October core CPI is around 0…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Bullish
USD in general USD/JPY: Bearish Impact 4/10
US October CPI Data Expected at 0.3% as Markets Weigh December Fed Hike
The October CPI report due today (consensus 0.3% MoM headline, 0.2-0.3% core) is the key test for the ~80%-priced December Fed hike. A downside surpri…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Bearish
USD in general USD/JPY: Bearish Impact 4/10
TD Securities Forecasts Modest USD Weakness Through Year-End
TD Securities argues the USD is no longer an effortless haven and expects a modestly weaker dollar into year-end, as in 2018, if AI-led US equity unde…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Bearish
USD in general USD/JPY: Bullish Impact 5/10
GBP/USD Slips to 1.3430 as Fed's Waller Signals Potential December Rate Hike
Waller's hawkish speech (Speechtracker 8.6/10 vs 7.2 average) raised the odds of a half-point December hike if October core CPI is 0.3% or higher, pus…
November 10, 2026 · for USD: Bullish
Full analysis

In-depth analysis of US Dollar / Japanese Yen

AI-generated · as of November 10, 2026

USD/JPY has moved little over the past week and month, and the verdict reflects that standoff: the chart side leans bearish while the news side argues both ways. The strongest technical evidence sits on the 8-hour and 4-hour charts, where more than twenty momentum and trend measures crossed down within a day, joined by a bearish engulfing candle.

Read full analysis

Resistance at 158.768 and support near 157.69 frame the range. Fresh news cuts both ways. Japan's household spending collapsed 6.8% year-on-year in September, the tenth straight decline and far worse than expected, which lowers expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening and supports the dollar against the yen. The BoJ's own minutes, though, show broad agreement that further rate increases are appropriate, and officials disclosed a record 7.98 trillion yen of currency purchases over the summer, a reminder of intervention risk that has historically capped the pair. On the US side, October payrolls of 165,000 nearly tripled forecasts and lifted December Fed hike odds, strengthening the dollar broadly. The high-impact US CPI release due shortly is the obvious pivot: a hot print would favour the dollar and challenge the bearish chart read, while a soft one would let the yen recover. Until then, the balance holds.

Frequently asked questions about US Dollar / Japanese Yen

What moves USD/JPY at the moment?

Mostly the interest-rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, and each side's next step. A December Fed hike is widely priced after the jobs beat, while the BoJ minutes point the same way. Weak Japanese spending muddies the yen side, and past intervention still limits how far the pair can climb.

What could the upcoming US CPI release change?

It is the main event risk in the days ahead. A hotter-than-expected inflation print would strengthen Fed hike bets and the dollar, supporting USD/JPY and challenging the bearish chart signals. A soft print would ease that pressure and let the yen recover ground lost since the jobs report.

Why is the coming week bearish but the next few weeks neutral?

The bearish signals are concentrated on the 4-hour and 8-hour charts, which fit a week-long horizon. Those same timeframes show a choppy, sideways trend with weak momentum, so the decline may not extend, and over several weeks the offsetting rate expectations and intervention risk leave the picture without a clear direction.

Asset Snapshot

📝 Overview Generated automatically

USD/JPY has been the subject of 473 signals across 473 articles in the last 365 days. Sentiment skews Bearish (58%).

Breakdown: 143 bullish, 273 bearish, 57 neutral.

Most-cited catalysts: BOJ rate hike expectations (4×), Unwinding of yen-funded carry trades (3×), Broad-based weakness of the Japanese Yen against major currency peers (3×). Most-cited risk factors: Bank of Japan intervention to support the yen (5×), Potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Yen (5×), Bank of Japan intervention to weaken yen (4×).

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